Study On Supply And Demand Measurement And Influencing Factors Of Elderly Care Institutions In China

With the continuous deterioration of the aging degree in our country and the pressure on social pension is further increased,the traditional modes of pension can no longer fully adapt to the increasingly severe demand for pension,and the new-type,diversified and high-level modes of pension become a development trend.Among them,no matter from the physical and mental development of the elderly or to reduce the burden of children,institutional pension has become a good choice for the elderly to enjoy their old age,therefore,reasonable planning and layout of pension institutions,effective allocation of pension infrastructure and nursing staff,and actively understand and meet the needs of institutional pension for the elderly,become the top priority of the pension service industry.In recent years,there has always been a paradoxical phenomenon of high vacancy rate of one difficult bed in pension institutions.In order to analyze the deep reasons behind this phenomenon,this paper makes an in-depth analysis of the supply and demand of beds in pension institutions.Firstly,the life table model was used to predict the number of disabled elderly population,and then the demand for nursing beds and nursing staff was predicted.Then,the demand and supply index system of pension beds is constructed,and the supply and demand index and the coordination degree of supply and demand are calculated to analyze the matching degree of supply and demand of pension beds.Finally,a two-factor fixed-effect panel data model was constructed to analyze the influencing factors of bed supply in pension institutions.The main conclusions include:(1)By 2022,about 2.5% of the elderly will need to live in nursing homes;(2)Endowment nursing personnel in our country still exist a large gap;(3)Regional economic level will affect the demand and supply level of pension institutions;(4)There is a large gap between supply and demand of nursing beds in western China;(5)The coordinated development degree of supply and demand of old-age care beds in most provinces is in a medium-good state of development;(6)The influence of aging degree and economic development on the supply of beds for the aged is reverse,while the influence of civil expenditure on the supply of beds for the aged is positive.