Research On The Influence Of The Elderly Dependency Ratio On The Level Of Insurance Development

With the advancement of science and technology and the improvement of medical standards in China,people’s lifespan continues to increase,the population structure shows an aging trend,and the elderly dependency ratio continues to increase.According to the seventh population census data,the elderly dependency ratio in China has increased from approximately 11.9% in 2010 to 19.7% in 2020.The increase in elderly dependency ratio is a double-edged sword.On the one hand,the increase in elderly dependency ratio causes a decrease in income,which may expose the insurance industry to risks such as a decrease in premium income and an increase in claims rates;On the other hand,the increase in the elderly dependency ratio has led to an increase in demand in the elderly insurance market,expanding insurance premium income.How the insurance industry can avoid risks and improve the level of insurance development through innovative insurance products and other means has become an urgent problem to be solved.Based on the existing literature,this thesis first elaborates the concepts of insurance development level and old-age dependency ratio.Secondly,the current situation of old-age dependency ratio and insurance development level in China was analyzed.Then,the theoretical mechanism of the influence of old-age dependency ratio on insurance development level is analyzed,and the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2002 to2019(Taiwan,Hong Kong and Macao are not included in the study in this thesis due to lack of data)are used to construct insurance development level indicators by introducing the entropy method of time variables,measure the insurance development level,and use the fixed-effect model to analyze the impact of old-age dependency ratio on insurance development level.Finally,based on basic regression,heterogeneity test and robustness test are used to further analyze the results.The results show that,first,China’s old-age dependency ratio has played a significant positive role in insurance development,and for every 1 percentage point increase in old-age dependency ratio,the insurance development level increases by 0.059 units;second,in the heterogeneity test in the eastern,central and western regions,there are significant regional differences in the impact of old-age dependency ratio on insurance development,and the influence of old-age dependency ratio on insurance development level has a significant promoting effect in all regions.Third,there is no stage heterogeneity in promoting the role of old-age dependency ratio on insurance.Based on the above conclusions,this thesis puts forward policy suggestions for innovating insurance products that match the development trend of old-age dependency ratio,promoting the optimization of insurance structure,and promoting the balanced development of insurance levels in various regions.