The Urban Worker’s Pension Replacement Rate Study Under The "Three-child" Policy

According to the data of the seventh National Census in 2021,the proportion of the population aged 60 and above in China reached 18.70%.The age of the population is further deepened,and for a period of time in the future,the population will continue to face the pressure of long-term balanced development.According to the prediction of the United Nations Population Program in 2017,the degree of population age in China will be close to the level of developed countries around 2030,and the degree of population aging will become a normal social situation in China.In order to ease the pressure on pension accounts,China proposed the policy of delaying retirement at the Third Plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee,and implemented the"Two-child" policy from 2016,followed by the "Three-child" policy in 2021.As an important indicator to measure the level of pension,pension replacement rate has been widely concerned and studied by researchers.The "Three-child" policy,delayed retirement policy and the change of enterprise contribution rate all affect the pension replacement rate.This paper first reviews the relevant pension insurance system and reform process in China,and finds that the pension replacement rate in China has continued to decline since the 1990s,and there is a risk that people’s living standards will decline when they enter the old age.Then,taking the basic pension replacement rate of urban workers as the research object,the relevant research literature of pension replacement rate is combed,and the prediction model of pension replacement rate is determined,that is,the alternation of generations(OLG)model.Based on the "Three-child" policy,this paper uses the sixth national census data and uses the software PADIS-INT to make population projections under the assumption of three fertility rates.Then,the OLG model is used to simulate the change of pension replacement rate from 2010 to 2050,and the following conclusions are drawn through the analysis of the prediction simulation results of pension replacement rate.First,the "three-child" policy can alleviate the downward trend of pension replacement rate,but it cannot fundamentally solve the situation of pension replacement rate decline;Secondly,the deferred retirement policy can also achieve the increase of pension replacement rate,and the increase or decrease of contribution rate will change in the same direction as the increase or decrease of pension replacement rate.Finally,according to the measure results,the corresponding policy suggestions are as follow:improve the "three child"policy supporting measures,reduce the cost of birth,education and improve the overall quality of the population;the policy of guaranteeing delayed retirement has been smoothly implemented;improve the three-pillar pension system.