| In 2014,Shanxi Province integrated the "new rural insurance" and "urban residence insurance",forming a old-age insurance system for urban and rural people.Through many years of improvement,the construction has been gradually improved,the operation effect has been gradually improved,and great progress has been made in the coverage,security and persistence,which has played a critical role in safeguarding the old people,accelerating economic development,and people can enjoy the achievement of economics.But,from the system status,because the lack of a normal and scientific adjustment mechanism for pension benefits for people,it is not same for the current pension level to fully guarantee the basic needs of old people in the context of rising prices.The pension treatment of people in Shanxi in 2020 is even lower than the rural subsistence allowance level,and cannot be compared with the salary level of urban workers,which has increased for the 18 th consecutive year.According to the report of the Party’s 20 th National Congress;"We must ensure and improve people’s livelihood through development...We will improve public service,make them more balanced and accessible,and steadily advance common prosperity." Can the current system in Shanxi eligible the basic survival needs of the elderly? What is a reasonable level of moderation? As a common international index to calculate the treatment level,this paper will conduct a study on the pension insurance level of people in Shanxi in a way that substitutes rates.To guarantee the requests of people as the target,this writing researches the suitable replacement rate of pension.Specifically,based on ensuring the survival needs of people,this paper calculates the lower limit of the pension replacement rate of people respectively through the heat consumption method and forecasts the lower limit of the pension replacement rate of people by using the existing data of price and resident income during 2014-2020.Based on the eight categories of consumer expenditure classified by China Statistical Yearbook,an ELES extended linear expenditure model was established.SPSS software was used to process consumer expenditure,income and other data,and the upper limit of pension replacement rate for urban and rural residents was estimated and predicted.Then the results are compared with the actual replacement rate of people protection,and it is concluded that the actual replacement rate is far lower than the appropriate replacement rate,and the elements are researched.If the pension level is too low,it can hardly guarantee people’s survival needs,while if it is too high,it will cause financial pressure.Therefore,20% and 40% of the average value of the upper and lower limits of the pension replacement rate are taken as the appropriate level of the pension for people,and the policy simulation is carried out by establishing the pension actuarial model and adjusting various parameters to improve the level.Among the findings: When the adjustment coefficient of basic pension is increased to 10%,the grade of residents participating in insurance and the accumulative years of residents participating in insurance are raised,the growth rate of individual contribution is raised to 6% and 7% in line with the growth rate of people’ per capita disposable income,and the fund investment is enhanced,the replacement rate of people can be improved,and even the desirable level of urban and rural housing insurance can be reached.Based on this,it is suggested to establish a scientific adjustment mechanism for basic pension,Improve the incentive mechanism for participants to pay more for longer periods of time;Appropriately increase government financial subsidies;Strengthen the investment and operation management of pension funds;Strengthen the publicity of relevant policies,etc. |
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