The Impact Of Delayed Retirement Age On China’s Urban Employee Basic Pension Insurance Pooling Funds

At this stage,looking at the demographic changes in various countries around the world,China’s aging problem is more prominent with its rapid speed and less accumulation.At the same time,through the United Nations observation of China’s population forecast data,China’s urban population will continue to increase,and the process of urbanization will gradually accelerate.The current balance growth rate of China’s urban employee basic endowment insurance began to decline in 2012.In order to ensure the stable operation of the fund,the government is facing increasing financial pressure on increasing pension expenditure.Against this background,official documents on the delayed retirement age scheme have been delayed.How the basic pension insurance fund for urban employees will be affected by the postponement of the retirement age of employees,and how to formulate a reasonable postponed retirement plan and other issues need to be further clarified by the academic community.In this regard,based on a review of the income and expenditure paths of pension insurance and a sustainable development perspective,this paper studies the impact of different delayed retirement schemes on urban employee basic pension insurance social collective funds before 2070.This study takes system dynamics as the main theoretical basis and uses the classic system dynamics research platform vensim simulation software as the technical support.Then the study uses the latest and related data to conduct simulation experiments to scientifically predict the income,expenditure and balance situation of China’s urban employee basic endowment insurance social collective fund before 2070.The first step is the experimental preparation stage.The paper analyzes the main indicators that constitute the income,expenditure and accumulated balance of urban employees’ basic endowment insurance social collective funds,and then determines the research variables,parameters,and structural relationships of each corresponding indicator.Then a dynamic forecasting model for the formation of an employee basic pension insurance social collective fund system model is been found.Second,based on the model passing the rationality test,system boundary test,and mental model test,without changing the current policy,benchmark experiments were performed,and three simulation experiments were carried out to gradually postpone the retirement age.The study found that based on the relevant hypothesis of this experiment,when the current policy is unchanged,China’s urban employee basic endowment insurance social collective fund will experience a situation of deficit in 2020.Based on the principle of“eliminating the age difference between men and women and gradually delaying the retirement age”,this article establishes three different delayed retirement plans that are gradually implemented in line with the current policy trend.Scenario 1 assumes that male employees will retire at the age of 60 and female employees will be retired by one year every three years from 2025 to 60 years by 2055.Scenario 2 assumes that male employees will be retired by one year every five years from 2025,and will be retired to 65 years by 2050;female employees will be delayed by one year every three years from 2025,and will be retired to 60 years by 2055.Scenario 3 assumes that male employees will be delayed by one year every 20 years from 2025 to 65 years old by 2050;female employees will be delayed by one year every three years from 2025 and will be retired to 65 years by 2070.Comparing the results of benchmark experiment and three simulation experiments,it is found that the early stage of social collective fund expenditure will decrease as the retirement age increases,and the later stage of the experiment will have the opposite trend;the social collective fund income will increase year by year as the retirement age increases;the cumulative social collective fund balance will increase as the retirement age is delayed;The implementation of the delayed retirement age plan eased the government’s financial pressure in the early stage,but the policy effect in the later period weakened,and the analysis of the results of the experimental results found that the implementation of the delayed retirement age scheme alone could not effectively delay the advent of the “deficit” phenomenon.Analyzing the social collective fund’s income and expenditure data obtained from the simulation experiment results,it was found that scheme 3 had the largest current balance before 2035,and scheme 2 had the largest current balance after 2035,and the policy effects of the three delayed retirement programs will be weakened by 2060.The accumulated balance data of the simulation experiment social collective fund shows that the scheme 3 has the largest cumulative balance before 2040,and the scheme 2 has the largest cumulative balance after 2040.By measuring the financial subsidy under the balance of payments,it is found that the financial burden of scheme 3 before 2035 is the smallest,and the financial burden of scheme 2 after 2035 is the smallest.But in the long run,the effects of the three delayed retirement policies in 2055 will be weaken,and no matter what kind of delayed retirement plan,in the long run,the government’s financial burden will increase year by year as the aging degree deepens.Therefore,this article proposes policy recommendations: taking into account the effects of policy overlap and choosing an appropriate retirement plan;combining other related policies to ensure that the fund’s revenue and expenditure are balanced;thegovernment has a heavy responsibility and it is appropriate to increase government financial subsidies.