Has The Construction Of Agricultural Modernization Improved The Carbon Emission Efficiency Of Agriculture?

In 2004,China surpassed the United States to become the world’s largest carbonemitting country.Not only did industrial carbon emissions increase significantly,but rapidly developing agricultural carbon emissions also remained at a relatively high level.The widespread and universal nature of agricultural production activities,as well as the long-term high input,high consumption,and high pollution agricultural development model,have resulted in agricultural carbon emissions becoming a significant contributor to global carbon emissions,leading to tremendous resource and environmental pressure.Agricultural modernization is an inevitable choice to implement the rural revitalization strategy and promote high-quality rural economic development.China has proposed a plan to basically achieve modernization by 2035.Clarifying the relationship between agricultural modernization and agricultural carbon emission efficiency and exploring the impact of achieving the carbon emission peak target by 2030 on the basic modernization target for 2035 is a topic worthy of discussion.This will provide a theoretical basis for accelerating green agricultural development,promoting carbon sequestration and efficiency in agriculture,and achieving coordinated regional economic and ecological development.This article analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution and regional differences of agricultural modernization and carbon emission efficiency in China from 2000 to 2019,as well as the spatial spillover effects and nonlinear relationship between agricultural modernization and agricultural carbon emission efficiency.Firstly,an evaluation index system for agricultural modernization is constructed,and the entropy weight method is used to measure the level of agricultural modernization.Secondly,establish an evaluation index system for agricultural carbon emission efficiency,and calculating the agricultural carbon emission efficiency through the super-efficiency SBMUndesirable model.Then analyze the spatiotemporal evolution trend of the two indicators,analyze the spatial agglomeration characteristics through spatial autocorrelation testing and standard deviation ellipse analysis,and analyze regional differences through kernel density estimation and Theil index.Next,select the spatial Durbin model for spatial spillover effect analysis and panel threshold model for analyzing the non-linear relationship between agricultural modernization and agricultural carbon emission efficiency.Finally,under the context of the rural revitalization strategy and achieving the “dual carbon” goal,targeted policy recommendations for achieving sustainable green development of China’s agriculture are proposed based on the research conclusions in the preceding text.This study found that:(1)The modernization level of agriculture in our country has steadily improved,but there is a problem of regional imbalance.The modernization level of agriculture in the three major regions has steadily increased,showing a spatial pattern feature of gradually decreasing from east to central to west.The regional differences are constantly widening,and the differences between regions are the main reason for the continuous expansion of the gap in the modernization level of agriculture in our country.(2)China’s agricultural carbon emission efficiency has continued to increase but has not yet reached the effective level of DEA.It shows a spatial pattern of higher efficiency in the eastern region than in the western and central regions.The regional differences in agricultural carbon emission efficiency have shown a trend of first narrowing and then continuously widening,and the intra-regional differences are the main source of the continuous expansion of China’s agricultural carbon emission efficiency in the later stages.(3)The development of agricultural modernization has a significant promoting effect on agricultural carbon emission efficiency,and the spatial spillover effect is significant.There is a non-linear relationship between agricultural modernization and agricultural carbon emission efficiency,and the promotion effect of different stages of agricultural modernization on agricultural carbon emission efficiency is different.(4)Controlling variables,the level of economic development has a positive promoting effect on agricultural carbon emission efficiency.On the other hand,industrialization,technological innovation,the degree of openness of agricultural products,and the degree of disaster have negative effects on the improvement of agricultural carbon emission efficiency.Meanwhile,the urbanization rate only exhibits a significant positive promoting effect on the efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions in the threshold model.