Spatial-temporal Changes And Influencing Factors Of Ecological Footprint In Central Plains Urban Agglomeration

The ecological footprint model can quantitatively evaluate the sustainability status of the research area from the perspective of ecological supply and demand.Most cities in the Central Plains urban agglomeration are resource-based cities,and their economic development is also restricted by the resources while enjoying the resources dividend.Based on the ecological footprint model,this study takes the Central Plains urban agglomeration and its 30prefecture-level cities as the research targets,from a space-time perspective,the ecological footprint,ecological carrying capacity,ecological deficit/surplus,and ecological development capacity of urban agglomerations are calculated and studied from 2005 to 2018,and the influencing factors of per capita ecological footprint were explored through the partial least-square method.Research indicates:(1)From 2005 to 2018,the per capita ecological footprint of the Central Plains urban agglomeration showed a temporal trend of an inverted "U" shaped,go up first and then go down;while the change of the per capita ecological carrying capacity was relatively small;during the research period,the Central Plains urban agglomeration is always in a state of ecological deficit,and the time trend is consistent with the time change trend of the per capita ecological footprint;in the calculation of the regional ecological development capacity,it is concluded that the resource utilization efficiency in this region is constantly improving,but the ecological pressure is also increasing.(2)In terms of spatial distribution pattern,the per capita ecological footprint of the Central Plains urban agglomeration has significant differences and imbalances,,roughly showing the distribution pattern of “high in the northwest and low in the southeast”;the spatial distribution pattern of the per capita ecological carrying capacity is “high all around and low in the middle”,and differences among prefecture-level cities are small;during the study period,all prefecture-level cities were in a state of ecological deficit,and the spatial distribution pattern was consistent with that of the per capita ecological footprint;in the calculation of ecological development capacity it was found that the resource utilization rate of Zhengzhou and around the cities is relatively high,and the ecological stress in the northwest is far greater than that in the southeast.(3)In the analysis of spatial correlation,there are significant positive spatial correlations among the per capita ecological footprint,per capita ecological carrying capacity and per capita ecological deficit of the Central Plains urban agglomeration.Among them,the per capita ecological footprint shows high-high(H-H),low-low(L-L)agglomeration distribution,and scattered high-low(H-L)agglomeration distribution,while the per capita ecological deficit is consistent with it;the per capita ecological carrying capacity mainly shows high-high(H-H)and low-low(L-L)agglomeration distribution.(4)Through the construction of the index system of influencing factors,the influencing factors of the per capita ecological footprint of the Central Plains urban agglomeration were analyzed.The study found that city size,industrial structure,economic level,environmental pollution are the main factors causing the growth of ecological footprint,while ecological construction,science and technology have inhibitory effects on the ecological footprint.Through the research on the ecological footprint and influencing factors of the Central Plains urban agglomeration,corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.Planning urban construction scientifically on the basis of moderately guiding population development;improve the utilization efficiency of energy resources,and vigorously encourage the transformation of various industries in the direction of ecology;encourage scientific and technological innovation and make full use of the spatial spillover benefits;strengthen environmental governance and build regional joint prevention and control;guide consumers carry out ecological consumption and strive to build a energy-saving society.