Analysis Of Credit Risk Measurement Of Cultural Media Listed Enterprises Based On KMV Model

Cultural media industry is closely related to social and economic development and scientific and technological reform.With the development of mobile Internet and technological innovation,the industrial pattern of cultural media industry is constantly reconstructed and the industry competition is intensified.While the scale of the industry is growing rapidly,the demand for capital in the cultural media industry is also growing explosively.However,the operating performance of cultural media industry is highly uncertain,and the high proportion of intangible assets also leads to the limited financing channels and high financing costs of cultural media enterprises.In recent years,under the influence of market demand,regulatory policies and many other factors,the performance of listed companies of cultural media has experienced frequent thunderstorms and credit default events,and the credit risk of the industry has increased significantly.In this context,this paper selects the cultural media industry as the research object,analyzes the current situation and causes of the credit risk of the industry,and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for the credit risk management of the cultural media industry,which is conducive to the development of the industry.Firstly,this paper evaluates the credit risk of cultural media industry from the qualitative level.Analyze the competition structure in the industry by understanding the development status and development environment of the industry.On this basis,it further explains the causes of credit risk in the cultural media industry,and summarizes the macro and micro factors affecting the credit risk of cultural media.Next,this paper uses KMV model to measure and analyze the credit risk of cultural media industry.The empirical part first makes an empirical test on whether the KMV model can identify the credit risk of China’s cultural media listed companies.In this paper,15 st and * ST Companies in the listed companies of cultural media are selected as the high-risk group,and 15 companies with normal performance with similar asset scale are selected as the low-risk group.The default distance of the two groups of sample companies is calculated by KMV model.Next,this paper makes descriptive statistics on the empirical results,matched sample t-test and Mann Whitney U-test.The test results show that the default distance of the high-risk group is significantly smaller than that of the low-risk group,indicating that KMV model can effectively measure the credit risk of China’s cultural media listed companies.After verifying the applicability of KMV model,further use KMV model to evaluate the overall credit risk of cultural media industry.101 cultural media listed companies are selected as the research object,covering 10 seed industries under the classification of cultural media industry.Calculate the default distance of the industry as a whole according to the stock price and financial data from 2016 to 2020,and analyze the change trend of credit risk during this period.The measurement results show that the overall credit risk of the cultural media industry was at the lowest level in 2017,and the credit risk increased significantly from 2018 to2020.From the perspective of the subdivided fields of the cultural media industry,the credit risk of the publishing industry remains the lowest in the calculation year,and the credit risk of the game industry is the highest.From the perspective of the differentiation degree of default distance,the film and television animation industry has the highest differentiation degree,indicating that there are great differences in the level of credit risk in the industry.Finally,this paper puts forward some suggestions from the two aspects of cultural media industry operation and policy supervision.Cultural media listed enterprises should formulate reasonable enterprise development and transformation strategies,adopt scientific financing methods,and strengthen the construction of their own credit risk management system.At the level of policy supervision,we should improve China’s credit investigation market,improve the supervision of information disclosure,strengthen the supervision system of bond issuance,broaden the financing channels of cultural media enterprises,and help cultural media enterprises achieve long-term and healthy development.