Study On Prevalence Of Major Chronic Diseases And Control Effect Of Risk Factors In G City

BackgroundSeptember 2015,the United Nations formulated a new global sustainable development goal,that is,by 2030,the probability of premature death from 4 major chronic diseases will be reduced by 1/3 on the basis of 2015.In October 2016,the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Healthy China 2030" The Planning Outline states that by 2030,the probability of premature death from major chronic diseases will be reduced by 30% compared to 2015.Subsequently,in September 2017,Guangdong also released the "Healthy Guangdong 2030" Plan.The probability of premature death is not affected by the age composition of the population and can be compared over time and across regions.According to the report on the global burden of disease,cardiovascular diseases,malignant tumors,diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases are collectively referred to as the four major chronic diseases.The premature death probability of the four major chronic diseases is an important indicator recommended by WHO to evaluate the level of chronic disease control in each country.The risk factor is the level of chronic diseases.important influencing factors.In this context,studying the prevalence of the four major chronic diseases and the probability of premature death in G city,and incorporating risk factors to predict the probability of premature death of the four major chronic diseases in 2030,has strong guiding significance and social value for strengthening the prevention and control of chronic diseases in G city.ObjectiveThrough the systematic coding and combing of the data of 169 causes of death of4-tier of chronic diseases in G city,sorting out the list of causes of death of chronic diseases in G city,to understand the proportion of the current four major chronic diseases to the total number of deaths in G city,and the proportion of chronic diseases in G city to the total number of deaths in G city Scientifically measure the current four major chronic diseases i n G city and the death burden caused by chronic diseases,as well as the order of death causes of chronic diseases in G city,and clarify the key diseases and key prevention targets.Incorporating risk factors to predict the premature death probability of the four major chronic diseases in G City,helping the health authorities to determine the key disease types,key population groups and risk factors for key prevention and control,and promote the realization of the goals of "Healthy Guangdong" and "Healthy China".MethodsUsing the 4-tier disease and injury framework of the global burden of disease and the "International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems"(ICD-10),the death data of G city from 2008 to 2019 were coded by disease type,and the calculation of G city from 2008 to 2019 was carried out.The death toll of 169 chronic diseases is combined with population data to calculate the crude death rate,standardized death rate,and premature death probability.Based on the control objectives of risk factors in planning documents such as the WHO non-communicable disease global monitoring framework,three scenarios of "natural trend",single risk factor control and all risk factors are constructed.Using the comparative risk assessment method and the proportional transformation model,the number of deaths and the probability of premature death from the four major chronic diseases in G City in 2030 are predicted under different scenarios.Results1.From 2008 to 2019,the four major chronic diseases in G City caused 398,174 deaths,accounting for 73.91% of the total deaths.From 2008 to 2019,the deaths from cardiovascular diseases and tumors accounted for more than 80% of the deaths from the four major chronic diseases in G city residents.The crude death rate of the four major chronic diseases of residents is higher than that of women,and the standardized death rate is also higher than that of women.From 2008 to 2019,the standardized mortality rate of the four major chronic diseases of residents in G city showed an overall increasing trend,and the annual change percentage was positive,and P<0.001.The mortality rate of the four major chronic diseases in G city showed a positive increase from 2008 to 2019.2.From 2008 to 2019,the probability of premature death of men from the four major chronic diseases in G city was higher than that of women,and the average annual change percentage of the four major chronic diseases in men was higher than that of women,and the probability of premature death in men was higher and the rate of change was faster.object.Cancer has a high probability of premature death,and the average annual percentage change in the probability of early death from cardiovascular disease is the highest.The average annual percentage change in the probability of early death from cardiovascular disease is higher than that of the four major chronic diseases.Therefore,to control the decline in the premature death rate of the four major chronic diseases in G City,First and foremost,the reduction in the probability of premature death from cardiovascular disease should be controlled.3.The ranking of risk factors on the probability of premature death from four major chronic diseases is: smoking,dietary risk,high BMI,alcohol consumption,and insufficient physical activity.Smoking control can reduce the probability of premature death of the four major chronic diseases by 7.52% compared with the natural trend,and controlling dietary risk,high BMI,alcohol consumption,and lack of physical activity can respectively reduce the probability of early death of the four major chronic diseases by 6.03%,2.38%,and0.88% compared with the natural trend %,0.44%.The control of the five major risk factors can reduce the probability of premature death from the four major chronic diseases by17.45% compared with the natural trend,and reduce the probability of premature death from the four major chronic diseases from 1.05% to-16.58% from 2015 to 2030.Conclusion1.G City has a heavy burden of death from four major chronic diseases,and the order of death causes is: cardiovascular disease,tumor,chronic respiratory disease,and diabetes.There are key diseases and key populations in the four major categories of chronic diseases.Cardiovascular diseases and tumors are the diseases that need to be paid attention to among the four major chronic diseases of the residents of G city.People aged 60 and above are the key prevention and control groups of the four major chronic diseases in G city.Behavioral risk factors can directly affect the incidence and death of chronic diseases.Incorporating risk factors into the scenario simulation prediction of the early death probability of the four major chronic diseases can help achieve the goals of Healthy China and Healthy Guangdong.2.The crude mortality rate,standardized mortality rate and premature death probability of the four major chronic diseases in G city all showed an increasing trend.The current death burden of chronic cardiovascular diseases among the residents of G city is the highest,and the average annual growth rate of the crude death rate and the average annual change of the standardized death rate are the fastest,and the death burden is the heaviest.The prevention and control of cardiovascular diseases has become a key factor in whether the mortality rate of the four major chronic diseases can be effectively reduced.In the prevention and control of the probability of premature death from the four major chronic diseases,it is necessary to focus on cardiovascular diseases and tumors.Carry out health screening and health index assessment for key populations.3.Behavioral risk factors can directly affect the incidence and mortality of chronic diseases,and controlling risk factors can effectively reduce the number of deaths and the probability of premature death from the four major chronic diseases.The ranking of risk factors on the probability of premature death from four major chronic diseases is: smoking,dietary risk,high BMI,alcohol consumption,and insufficient physical activity.Under the natural trend,the premature death probability of the four major chronic diseases in G city cannot reach the expected decline target value of "2030" in Healthy Guangdong.The probability of premature death from the four major chronic diseases has dropped from1.05% to-16.58%.Controlling risk factors to meet the standards will help achieve the goal of reducing the probability of premature death from the four major chronic diseases in Healthy Guangdong in 2030,and promote the construction of Healthy China and Healthy Guangdong.