Research On The Impact Of The "Universal Three-child" Policy And Deferred Retirement Policy On The Sustainability Of The Basic Medical Insurance Fund For Urban Employees

Data from the seventh national census shows that the population aged 60 and above has exceeded 18% of the total population,and the aging of the population is getting worse,and the problem of population aging will persist for a long time.Since its establishment,basic medical insurance for urban workers has played a pivotal role in solving the problem of difficult and expensive medical treatment for the masses.It is an important part of China’s medical security system and one of the "protective nets" to maintain people’s health and safety.The safe operation of basic medical insurance for urban employees largely depends on the balance of payments of basic medical insurance fund for urban employees.The financing model of the basic medical insurance fund for urban workers is pay-as-you-go,which is vulnerable to the impact of population aging.To mitigate the effects of an aging population,the one-child policy has been shifted from universal two-child policy to universal three-child policy,and delayed retirement policy is also on the agenda.Theoretically,the implementation of the "universal three-child" policy can have a positive impact on the total fertility rate,increase the number of employees paying contributions and improve the participation structure of the basic medical insurance for urban employees,which will help guarantee the balance of payments of the basic medical insurance for urban employees.Delaying retirement can optimize the sustainable development of the pension fund by extending the period of employee contribution.Therefore,this thesis studies the impact of the "universal three-child" policy on the urban employee basic medical insurance fund by setting the differentiated total fertility rate,and further studies the comprehensive effect of deferred retirement policy and the "universal three-child" policy on the sustainability of the basic medical insurance for urban employees.This thesis mainly analyzes from the perspective of the implementation of the "universal three-child" policy.First,this thesis expounds the research background and significance,reviews the domestic and foreign literature related to the subject,introduces the core concepts of basic medical insurance fund for urban employee,universal three-child,delayed retirement,sustainable fund and related theories,and lays a good theoretical foundation for this research.Secondly,this thesis analyzes the development status of the urban employee basic medical insurance fund,clarifies the development process of the urban employee basic medical insurance system and the actual situation of the fund,and lays a realistic foundation for the subsequent research.Thirdly,by constructing the balance model of urban employee basic medical insurance fund and setting relevant parameters,this thesis predicts the balance of urban employee basic medical insurance fund in different situations after the implementation of the "universal three-child" policy and after the implementation of the delayed retirement policy,and makes a summary analysis.Finally,based on the above research,this thesis puts forward targeted policy suggestions to ensure the sustainability of the basic medical insurance fund for urban workers.The results show that without the implementation of the "universal three-child" policy,the fund balance of basic medical insurance for urban workers will be negative for the first time in 2034,and the accumulated income and expenditure will be short in 2045.When implementing the "universal three-child" policy,the higher the total fertility rate is,the better the effect on reducing the deficit of urban workers’ basic medical insurance pooling fund is compared with that without implementing the "universal three-child" policy.However,it does not delay the deficit of current and cumulative payments,which indicates that,the implementation of the "universal three-child" policy has limited effect on the sustainable development of the urban employee basic medical insurance pooling fund.On this basis,when the delayed retirement policy is added,the gap of the fund in the current period can be postponed to 2041,and the accumulated balance will be positive in 2050.This shows that the implementation of the retirement delay policy has an obvious effect on the sustainability of the urban employee basic medical insurance pooling fund.However,according to the changing trend of the accumulated fund balance,the sustainability of the urban employee basic medical insurance pooling fund is still under threat in the long run.In order to better realize the sustainable development of urban workers’ basic medical insurance pooling fund,this thesis suggests: first,improve the supporting measures related to the "universal three-child" policy;Second,implement the gradual retirement policy;Third,open source and reduce expenditure to maintain sustainable funds.