Prediction Of The Demand For Medical Resources In Response To Major Infectious Diseases In The Prefecture Level City

In the global context of frequent occurrence of major infectious diseases,the Chinese government attaches great importance to the allocation of traditional Chinese medicine resources in response to major infectious diseases.At the same time,as an important force in emergency response,municipal medical resources explore the demand for municipal medical resources in response to major infectious diseases in different scenarios,providing a scientific and powerful basis for better responding to potential major infectious diseases in the future.In view of this,the specific research questions in this article are as follows:First of all,based on the prevention and control policies and epidemic scale of the COVID-19 epidemic in China,this paper divides three major infectious disease response scenarios in the city;Secondly,the Grounded theory is used to extract the elements of medical resources for major infectious disease response scenarios in the city,specifically including institutional needs,personnel needs,material needs and financial support;Thirdly,based on the developed multi-objective tuna swarm optimizer(MOTSO)and the five benchmark models of BPNN,ELM,ENN,CNN and GRU,this paper constructs a PSR-MOTSO prediction system through three steps of preprocessing,swarm optimization algorithm and interval prediction,and evaluates the above developed combined prediction model from five aspects of prediction accuracy,stability,generalization,prediction ability and Goodness of fit;Next,based on the PSR-MOTSO prediction model developed in this article,combined with the collected consumption ratios of medical resources required by different populations such as isolated individuals,mild patients,and severe patients,a comparative analysis of medical resource requirements under different scenarios is conducted;Then,taking Lanzhou’s response to the COVID-19 as an example,we compared the existing level of medical resources in Lanzhou,reviewed the allocation of medical resources during the epidemic response period in Lanzhou,and tested whether the predicted results of medical resource demand above fit the real situation;Finally,based on the previous analysis,the prediction of medical resource demand in different scenarios in response to major infectious diseases provides effective management insights for addressing the demand for medical resources in major infectious disease cities in the future.The main findings of the study include:(1)Based on the COVID-19 management and control strategy and epidemic scale,we constructed a sudden severe transmission scenario,a municipal outbreak scenario in the normal prevention and control stage,and a local outbreak and multi-point distribution scenario in the normal prevention and control stage;(2)The medical resource elements of major infectious disease response scenarios in the prefecture level city include institutional needs,personnel needs,material needs,and financial support.(3)A PSR-MOTSO prediction model was constructed and compared with benchmark models,traditional models,and combination models based on different optimization strategies.In all prediction scenarios,the prediction accuracy,stability,and prediction ability of PSR-MOTSO were evaluated,Generalization and Goodness of fit are better than other models;(4)Taking Lanzhou City as an example during its response to the COVID-19,this paper again verified the good effect of the model in forecasting the demand for medical resources in response to major infectious diseases in the prefecture level city.