Research On Credit Risk Of Pig Industry Chain Based On KMV Model And Social Network Analysis

As one of the pillar industries of China’s agricultural economic development,the pig industry has attracted much attention in the development of agricultural industrialization.At present,the pig market is extraordinarily complex,and the degree of association between enterprises in the pig industry chain is relatively high.It is also affected by various uncertainties such as African swine fever and COVID-19.The risk tolerance is weak.The credit risk of the industrial chain can easily be induced.It will not only cause credit risk contagion in the industrial chain but also will have a negative impact on China’s animal husbandry economy.Therefore,analyzing the relationship between listed enterprises in China’s pig industry chain and accurately measuring their credit risk is the internal demand to improve the scale and specialization of China’s pig industry chain,which is in line with China’s strategic deployment for the pig industry.Based on the perspective of the pig industry chain,taking 22 listed companies in the pig industry chain classified by the Wind database as samples,this paper uses the Social Network Analysis to analyze the relationship between listed enterprises in China’s pig industry chain and then calculates the enterprise asset value and its volatility,default distance and default probability through the KMV model.The results show that the profitability of pig enterprises in 2016-2017 is stable,showing the characteristics of Large Default distance and low default probability,and the credit risk of the whole industrial chain is small.In 2018,the situation of the African swine plague and the COVID-19 in2020 led to a significant decline in pig production in China.The correlation between industrial chain risks and assets value volatility and default probability increased.The midstream pig-breeding enterprises represented by biological shares,Zhongmu shares,Muyuan shares,Wenshi shares,and Tiankang biology are more active in the network,the relationship is more complex,and the credit risk influence is greater.With the support of the national policy of credit control,the relationship with the pig industry is gradually restored and the risk is gradually reduced.Overall,the credit risk between pig industry chains is closely related.It is necessary to improve the scale and specialization of the industry to reduce the systematic risk of the industry chain.By constructing the risk management system of China’s pig industry chain,while preventing the credit risk of the industry chain,complete the transformation and upgrading of the industry chain,driving the rise of leading enterprises in the industry,and lay a good foundation for the standardization process of the pig industry,Promote the rapid development of China’s pig industry chain.