Key Risks For PPP Projects Of Rural Water Conservancy Facilities Based On Social Network Analysis

Implementing the rural revitalization strategy,vigorously building beautiful villages,developing modern agriculture and rural economy,and realizing the integrated development of urban and rural areas are the basic requirements for the three-agriculture.The construction of rural water conservancy facility plays an important role in promoting the success and implementation of the rural revitalization.In recent years,as PPP has been widely applied to rural water conservancy facilities,it has greatly alleviated the contradiction of insufficient investment in rural water conservancy facilities,effectively promoted the continuous development and improvement of rural water conservancy facilities,and injected strong development momentum into rural revitalization.However,due to the characteristics of PPP projects of rural water conservancy facilities,the success of the project faces more risks,and the control of key risk factors is important to reduce the overall risk of the project and improve the success rate of the project.This paper takes the newly built rural water conservancy facility PPP project as the research object,based on the whole life cycle theory,risk transmission theory,combined with the characteristics of rural water conservancy facilities PPP project,through the existing literature research,44 risk factors are preliminarily selected,and a questionnaire is set on this basis.Use the pre-investigation method to determine the rationality of the questionnaire,and then issue a formal questionnaire to identify the risk factors of rural water conservancy facilities PPP projects,process and analyze the data with the help of SPSS,and use factor analysis to identify principal components which includes 4 primary indicators and 30 secondary indicators,and then build a risk factor indicator system for PPP projects of rural water conservancy facilities.Based on the constructed index system,the relationship between risk factors was quantified according to the questionnaires issued by experts.After consistency analysis,the risk network of rural water conservancy facilities PPP projects was constructed based on the social network analysis（SNA）.The middleman index determines the influence and transmission power of risk nodes,and analyzes the important risk factors in the network;and combines the entropy-TOPSIS method,based on the Pareto rule to determine the risk that the comprehensive influence intensity accounts for the top 20% under the measurement of each index factors are key risk factors for project success.Taking the Liaofang Water Conservancy Project Irrigation Phase II PPP Project in Jiangxi Province as a case,the application of SNA method in analyzing the key risk factors of PPP projects of rural water conservancy facilities is empirically analyzed.Main research conclusions: First,the PPP project of rural water conservancy facilities faces greater risks to the success of the project due to its own characteristics,and there is an interaction relationship between risk factors;second,key risk factors will directly or indirectly affect other risks in the process of the risk transmission.The control of key risks is the key to reduce the overall risk of the project and promote the success of the project;third,SNA combined with entropy-TOPSIS method can effectively identify and determine the PPP project of rural water conservancy facilities.Key risks,including water resource reserve risk,pipeline route change risk,operation management risk,government behavior risk,channel technology processing risk,and minimum demand risk;fourth,based on the analysis of actual cases,SNA combined entropy-TOPSIS method for in-depth analysis.It takes into account the relationship between risk factors and the multi-attributes of risk indicators,which is more effective and feasible for the determination of key factors.