| Grain security is related to social stability,economic development,and the problem of feeding more than 1.4 billion people in China.The Party and the government attach great importance to the issue of national grain security,since 2004 for 20 consecutive years issued the Central Document No.1,issued a number of policies to support the development of agriculture,the financial constantly increased subsidies to the three agricultural subsidies,to increase farmers’ income from growing grain,stabilize grain production has played an important role.Since agriculture is characterized by weakness,instability and weak market competitiveness,it needs certain policy instruments to be macro-controlled and supported by the government.However,as China’s economy and society enter a new era,the effectiveness of agricultural subsidy policies is gradually declining,such as subsidies may bring about the application of chemical fertilizers and pesticides in large quantities,leading to agricultural surface pollution,which in turn has an impact on grain production.What is the impact of the existing agricultural subsidy policy on grain production,which is related to national grain security? The answer to this question is of great practical importance.This paper firstly reviews and summarizes the research results at home and abroad,defines the meaning of agricultural subsidy policy,agricultural surface source pollution and grain yield,and uses public goods theory,externality and agricultural weakness theory to support this paper;Secondly,this study uses panel data from 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in China from 2002 to 2020,and adopts the unit survey assessment method to measure the surface source pollution of fertilizers,and borrows Arc GIS and other software to assist in analyzing the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of surface source pollution of fertilizers and pesticides in China from 2002 to 2020;Thirdly,using panel fixed-effects model,mediated-effects model,and panel quantile regression model,we empirically tested the impact of financial agricultural subsidies on grain yield and its mechanism of action;Fourthly,based on the regional heterogeneity,we further analyze the impact of financial agricultural subsidies on grain yield in the east,central,west,and northeast regions and the main grain-producing and non-main grain-producing regions.Finally,based on the conclusions drawn from this study,policy recommendations for increasing grain production and mitigating agricultural surface source pollution are proposed for achieving increased food production and green development in the new era.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)The trends of changes in fertilizer surface-source pollution emissions,emission intensity and unit pesticide loss nationwide from2002 to 2020 are roughly the same,showing the characteristics of changes of growth and then decline.The geographic heat map drawn by Arc GIS finds that provinces and cities with high agricultural intensification,such as Beijing,Guangdong,Jiangsu,Fujian and Zhejiang,have the highest emission intensity,and Hainan,Fujian,Beijing,Guangdong,Zhejiang,Hunan,and Hubei provinces and cities had the highest pesticide loss per unit area.(2)There is a significant positive effect of financial agricultural subsidies on grain yield,and there is variability in the promotion effect of financial agricultural subsidies on grain yield for regions with different levels of grain output.(3)Fertilizer surface source pollution intensity can play a mediating role in the effect of financial agricultural subsidies on grain yield,that is,financial agricultural subsidies can affect grain yield by changing the level of fertilizer surface source pollution.(4)For the main grain-producing areas,the effect of financial agricultural subsidies on grain yield is not significant.For non-major food-producing regions,financial agricultural subsidies promotes the increase of production in non-major food-producing regions.There is a positive and significant relationship between financial agricultural subsidies and grain yield in both eastern and western regions;there is no significant relationship between financial agricultural subsidies and grain yield in central and northeastern regions.Based on the above findings,this paper proposes the following recommendations: first,strengthen the regulatory measures for areas with high pollution emissions and emission intensity;second,increase the investment of financial support for agriculture and optimize the structure of financial support for agriculture subsidies;third,focus on increasing the financial support for agriculture in provinces with high endowment of grain cultivation resources in non-major food producing areas;fourth,different agricultural subsidy policies should be used reasonably according to local conditions,and adopt differential agricultural subsidy policies in the east and west and the central and northeast regions respectively. |
