Temporal And Spatial Dynamics Of Carbon Storage And Carbon Sequestration Potential In Forest Canopy In Zhongtiao Mountains,Shanxi Province

Forest carbon sequestration is an economical and environmentally friendly method to mitigate the rise of atmospheric CO₂ concentration,and this has been widely recognized in the international community.In order to understand the spatio-temporal dynamic change,driving factors and carbon sink potential of forest carbon density in Zhongtiao Mountains,Shanxi Province,the data of national forest resources inventory in the 7th（2000-2005）,8th（2006-2010）and 9th（2011-2015）periods from 18 forestry stations of Zhongtiao Mountains State Forest Administration were collected to make the analysis.We used the weighted biomass empirical regression model to estimate the carbon storage and carbon density of the forest of Zhongtiao Mountains area,and the differences of forest carbon density from the different origins,age of forest stands and associations were also compared.The effects of the site conditions,stand characteristics and climate factors on the spatial pattern of the forest carbon density were further analyzed by random forest and structural equation model.Finally,the empirical model and PLUS coupled In VEST model are used to estimate the future carbon sink potential of the forest of the study area.The results were as follows:（1）The forest carbon density and carbon storage in Zhongtiao Mountains were 24.87,26.56 and 31.42 Mg C/hm² and 15.89,16.00 and 20.15 TgC in 2005,2010 and 2015,respectively,with an annual growth rate of 2.63%and 2.68%.The carbon densities of natural forest and planted forest were 25.97,27.84 and 32.95 Mg C/hm² and 21.15,22.63and 27.25 Mg C/hm² in 2005,2010 and 2015,respectively.Among them,the carbon density of the mature forest,mature forest,mature forest and young forest was 109.26～119.47,52.04～66.12,29.69～36.00 and 13.36～15.20 Mg C/hm²,respectively.The carbon density of the natural forest is significantly higher than that of the planted forest.（2）The plots with high carbon density（>100 Mg C/hm²）and medium-high carbon density（60-100 Mg C/hm²）were mainly distributed in the central and southwest of the study area,while the plots with low carbon density（<60 Mg C/hm²）were mainly distributed in the northeast of the study area.During the 15-year period,the plots where the increase amount of the carbon density was larger than 25 Mg C/hm² accounted for 16.10%of the total plots;the increase amount of the carbon density in the central and southwest plots was larger than that in the northeast plots.Age of the stand and annual rainfall were two important driving factors affecting the spatial pattern of forest carbon density in the study area.The age of stand had a significantly positively direct effect on carbon density,while the annual rainfall affected the spatial distribution pattern of carbon density through an indirect effect on stand factors.（3）The results of carbon storage predicted by Logistic model and PLUS coupled In VEST model showed little difference.The simulation results of the both models showed that the forest carbon storage in Zhongtiao Mountains area would increase year by year,and that the amount of carbon storage in 2030 and 2060 would be in a range from 25.54 to 26.45TgC and 37.09 to 38.78 TgC,respectively.Compared with 2015,carbon storage amount in 2030 and 2060 would increase by 5.39～6.30 TgC and 16.94～18.63 TgC,respectively.