| Maintaining the stability and sustainability of ecosystem service functions is of great significance for regional and even global sustainable development.However,global changes and the rapid development of socio-economy threaten the sustainability of regional ecosystem service functions and ecological security.Nature reserves are currently recognized as an effective means of conserving biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem service functions.They are important not only for protecting rare and endangered plants and animals but also for the maintenance of critical ecosystem service functions.To achieve a "win-win" situation between society and ecosystems,it is essential to understand and predict the spatiotemporal variation and interaction relationships of ecosystem service functions,and develop effective management measures to enhance them in nature reserves.This paper evaluated the spatiotemporal dynamics and interaction relationships of water yield,soil conservation,carbon storage,and biodiversity in Jiulianshan National Nature Reserve from2000 to 2020 using In VEST and LANDIS PRO model.We then coupled the FLUSLANDIS-LINKAGES model to simulate and predict the spatial and temporal changes and interaction relationships of ecosystem service functions under the natural development scenario and planned conservation scenario of SSP-RCPs from 2020 to 2100.Finally,this paper discussed management strategies for enhancing ecosystem service functions in the nature reserve,providing a scientific basis for functional ecological zoning and natural resource management in nature reserves.The main results are as follows:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the water yield of the Jiulianshan National Nature Reserve showed an overall increasing trend,with high-value areas mainly distributed in the central region of the reserve and low-value areas mainly concentrated in the western and southeastern regions.Soil conservation also showed a gradual trend in general,with highvalue areas mainly located in the western and southeastern regions,and low-value areas distributed in the northeastern,southwestern,and eastern regions.The carbon storage exhibited a gradually increasing trend,with high-value areas mainly distributed in the northeastern,eastern,and southwestern regions,and low-value areas mainly in the southwestern and eastern regions.The biodiversity demonstrated an overall increasing trend with a slight increase,and high-value areas were widely distributed in reserve,while lowvalue areas were mainly located in the southwestern,eastern,and northeastern regions.(2)From 2000 to 2020,the overall synergistic relationships among water yield,soil conservation,carbon storage,and biodiversity in Jiulianshan National Nature Reserve were mainly distributed in the central,southern,and western regions,while the trade-off relationships were mainly concentrated in the northern,southern,and southwestern marginal regions.Among different land use/vegetation cover types,synergistic relationships among ecosystem service functions were mainly concentrated in broad-leaved forests,coniferous forests,mixed forests,moso bamboo forests,and grasslands,while trade-off relationships were mainly concentrated in shrubs and croplands.At different altitudes,the overall proportion of synergistic relationships among ecosystem service functions showed an increasing trend with increasing altitude.(3)Ecosystem service functions in Jiulianshan National Nature Reserve in 2100 will be supplied at relatively high levels under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP1-1.9 scenarios,and at relatively low levels under the SSP2-4.5,SSP5-3.4,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,with high-value areas mainly located in the northwestern,southeastern and central regions,and low-value areas mainly in the southwestern and northeastern regions.All ecosystem services from 2020 to 2100 will show an increasing trend under SSP1-2.6 scenario,but significant spatial and temporal variation under the rest of the scenarios.The water yield will show an overall upward trend.The soil conservation will gradually increase under SSP-RCPs scenarios and only show a decreasing trend under SSP2-4.5 scenario.The carbon storage will also show an upward trend,significantly increasing under SSP1-1.9,SSP2-4.5,and SSP3-7.0 scenarios.The biodiversity will increase relatively more under the SSP1-1.9 scenario and show a slight decrease under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The value-added areas of ecosystem service functions will mainly concentrate in the central,southeastern,and western regions,while the declining areas will mainly concentrate in the northern,eastern,and southwestern regions.(4)In 2020-2100,the synergistic relationship between water yield and soil conservation in Jiulianshan National Nature Reserve will be gradually significant under various SSPRCPs scenarios,with the most significant synergistic effect under SSP1-2.6 scenario.The synergistic relationship between soil conservation and carbon storage will gradually change to a dominant trade-off relationship under SSP2-4.5 scenario,and the synergistic relationship will expand under the remaining scenarios.The synergistic relationship between water yield and carbon storage will maintain stability under the SSP1-2.6 scenario.The dominant relationship between water yield and carbon storage will shift significantly from trade-off to synergistic in SSP3-7.0 scenario,and show a trend of gradually shifting from a synergistic to trade-off relationship in SSP5-8.5 scenario.The proportion of synergistic areas will gradually increase in water yield and biodiversity under SSP2-4.5,SSP5-3.4,and SSP5-8.5scenarios,while the trade-off relationship will be significant in the remaining scenarios.The trade-off areas between soil conservation and biodiversity will be substantially replaced by synergistic areas in SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios,and the trade-offs will be gradually significant in the rest of the scenarios.The proportion of trade-off relationship between carbon storage and biodiversity will increase in the SSP-RCPs scenarios.The synergistic areas of ecosystem service functions will be widely distributed in reserve,while the tradeoff areas will mainly concentrate in the central and northern,southern,northwestern,and northeastern regions.Regarding different land use/vegetation cover types,the synergistic relationship among ecosystem service functions will mainly concentrate in Cunninghamia lanceolata(Lamb.)Hook.,Schima superba Gardner & Champ.,Castanopsis carlesii(Hemsl.)Hayata.,Castanopsis fargesii Franch.,Cinnamomum camphora(L.)J.Presl,Castanopsis fordii Hance,Litsea elongate(Wall.ex Ness)Benth.& Hook.f.,and Cyclobalanopsis glauca Thunb.forests,while the trade-off relationship will mainly concentrate in Alniphyllum fortunei(Hemsl.)Makino,Pinus massoniana Lamb.,Liquidambar formosana Hance forests,grasslands,and croplands.(5)Sustainable land use and management measures can further optimize and enhance regional ecosystem service functions.The supply and enhancement level of all ecosystem service functions in the SSP-RCPs scenarios under the planned conservation scenario will be higher than in the natural development scenario.The proportion of synergistic areas among ecosystem service functions will be higher in the planned conservation scenario,but significantly lower in the northeastern and southern regions compared to the natural development scenario.The ecosystem service functions of Jiulianshan National Nature Reserve showed an upward and synergistic trend in the past 20 years.The overall trend of ecosystem service functions will increase in the next 80 years,but the magnitude of the increase and synergy of ecosystem service functions under different SSP-RCPs scenarios will be significantly different.In the future,ecosystem service functions will have the strongest supply capacity and synergistic effect under SSP1-2.6 scenario and the lowest supply capacity and synergistic effect under SSP5-8.5 scenario.The scientific and reasonable land use management measures can effectively enhance the ecosystem service functions and mitigate the trade-off relationship between ecosystem service functions to optimize the reserve’s ecological benefits.This study can provide a scientific basis for enhancing ecosystem service benefits and rational use and allocation of natural resources in Jiulianshan National Nature Reserve,and also provide a theoretical basis for enhancing the ecological security barrier function of the nature reserve. |
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