Analysis Of The Spatial Pattern Of "Non-Grain" Production Of Cultivated Land In Shandong Province And Its Influencing Factors

Food security is an important foundation for national security,and cultivated land is a fundamental guarantee of food security.At present,the protection of cultivated land and the sustainable development of food production in China are facing enormous pressure and challenges,and the cultivated land for growing food crops is decreasing day by day,and the phenomenon of“non-grain”of cultivated land has become prominent,which seriously endangers national food security.As a major grain-producing region in China,Shandong Province’s grain production is of great significance to China’s food security.However,there are relatively few empirical studies on the“non-grain”of cultivated land in Shandong Province,and further research is needed on its spatial pattern variation characteristics and influence mechanisms.In this study,135 county-level administrative units were selected as the study area,and the“non-grain”production of cultivated land(P_NGP)and the implication of the“non-grain”cultivation structure and agricultural production structure were studied.The“non-grain”of agricultural production structure(P_NGPN1)reflects the“non-grain”of cultivated land being transformed into other types of agricultural land,while the“non-grain”of cropping structure(P_NGPZ1)reflects the“non-grain”of cultivated land being planted with non-grain crops.The two together reflect the“non-grain”of cultivated land.By summarizing the previous literature and combining the natural endowment,infrastructure layout and socio-economic development level of Shandong Province,a 16-indicator system of influencing factors including topographical conditions,climatic conditions,soil quality,location conditions,production conditions and economic level was constructed from both natural conditions and socio-economic aspects.At the same time,the spatial analysis method was used to study the characteristics of the spatial pattern of“non-grain”cultivated land in Shandong Province.Secondly,the Ordinary Least Square（OLS）,Geographically weighted regression（GWR）and Multiscale Geographic Weighted Regression（MGWR）models were used to fit the level of“non-grain”production in Shandong Province to determine the best-fit model,and then the best-fit model was used to determine the level of“non-grain”production and its influence.The optimal model was then used to analyze the influencing factors of“non-grain”and its influencing mechanism.The specific findings are as follows:（1）The spatial pattern of the three“non-grain”levels is higher in the eastern hilly areas and lower in the western plain areas,with the highest level of P_NGPand P_NGPZ1in Weihai and the lowest in Dezhou.The P_NGPand P_NGPZ1highest in Weihai,and the lowest is Dezhou;the P_NGPN1highest is Yantai,and the lowest is Heze.（2）The regression of the level of“non-grain”and the influencing factors by the OLS,GWR and MGWR models revealed that the fit of the MGWR model was better than that of the OLS model and the GWR model,although the GWR model improved the fit by considering spatial heterogeneity compared to the traditional OLS model,it only considered the optimal bandwidth.The MGWR model can reflect the spatial variability of different factors and has better explanatory power for the dependent variable than the OLS and GWR models,and is more suitable for exploring the degree of influence of each factor on the level of“non-grain”at different scales of action.（3）The results of the influencing factors and mechanisms show that social conditions have a greater influence on the“non-grain”,especially location and production conditions,while climatic conditions have a greater influence on the“non-grain”among natural conditions.The unevenness of natural conditions and socio-economic development in Shandong Province has a combined effect on the spatial variation of the level of“non-grain”of cultivated land.（4）According to the influence mechanism,the following suggestions are made to control the“non-grain”in Shandong Province:adjust the structure of agricultural production and cultivation according to natural conditions,accelerate the promotion of good agricultural seed cultivation technology;improve the system of grain cultivation subsidies and solve the problem of grain marketing in multiple directions;and promote the implementation of land improvement and accelerate the quality transformation of cultivated land.This research can provide targeted and differentiated policy recommendations for the control of“non-grain”cultivated land in Shandong Province,which is of theoretical and guiding significance for improving cultivated land protection policies,improving the efficiency of cultivated land use and ensuring the sustainable development of food production.