Spatial-temporal Characteristics And Driving Factors Of Cultivated Land Non-grain In The Eastern Henan Plain

Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy,and cultivated land is the foundation of agricultural production.As China is a big country of grain production and consumption,whether the amount of cultivated land and grain production can be guaranteed is the overall key factor affecting China’s economic development and social stability.Since the Third Plenary Session of the Sixteenth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China,my country has implemented the strictest system of cultivated land protection.Nevertheless,a large number of non-grain phenomena of cultivated land still exist in some areas,which has a certain impact on my country’s grain production.Henan Province is the second largest grain-producing province in my country and bears the burden of national grain production.The Eastern Henan Plain is the main grain-producing area in Henan Province.The phenomenon of non-grain of cultivated land in the Eastern Henan Plain is studied,and its temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and non-grain characteristics are analyzed.The driving factors of grain transformation are of great significance to ensure my country’s food security.In this study,the Eastern Henan Plain in Henan Province was taken as an example.Based on the method of crop phenology and phase characteristics,the grain planting range in the Eastern Henan Plain was obtained,and the spatial overlay analysis was carried out with the existing land use data to obtain the non-grain cultivated land range in the Eastern Henan Plain.Then,the non-grain area and the degree of non-grain from 2000 to 2019 were analyzed from the three aspects of time characteristics,space characteristics and space-time characteristics.Finally,the index system was constructed,and the driving factors of nongrain conversion of cultivated land in the Eastern Henan Plain in 2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2019 were analyzed using multiple linear regression models and geographically weighted regression models.The main conclusions drawn from the study are as follows:(1)From 2002 to 2019,the non-grain area of cultivated land in the Eastern Henan Plain increased by 90.91 thousand hectares,and the non-grain area showed a slowly fluctuating upward trend.Specifically,from 2002 to 2005,the non-grain area of cultivated land showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing;from 2005 to 2017,the area of non-food crops fluctuated year by year;from 2017 to 2019,the area of non-grain crops decreased slightly.(2)From 2000 to 2010,the distribution of cultivated land non-grain in the Eastern Henan Plain was mainly in the north and scattered in the south;from 2010 to 2019,the distribution of cultivated land in the south increased,and the cultivated land in the Eastern Henan Plain was non-grain The distribution is no longer a spatial distribution pattern of more in the north and less in the south,and non-grain areas have been fully spread in the eastern Henan plain.Overall,the phenomenon of extreme non-grain in the Eastern Henan Plain has decreased,and the overall degree of non-grain has gradually increased.(3)Moran’s I decreased from 0.422 in 2000 to 0.219 in 2019,the degree of spatial agglomeration gradually weakened,and the distribution of cultivated land non-grain became more dispersed.The characteristics of local spatial aggregation are mainly "low-low" and "high-high".The center of gravity of cultivated land non-grain has moved 6.262 Km to the southeast in the past 20 years,with an average moving rate of 0.313Km/year.The area of the non-grain standard deviation ellipse has increased by 1237K㎡ in the past 20 years,and the distribution range of cultivated land non-grain has a tendency to gradually expand.(4)Geographically weighted regression results show that the average slope has a negative impact on the non-grain degree of cultivated land,and the low-value areas are mainly concentrated in the southeast region,while the high-value areas are concentrated in the northwest region;The scope of positive influence continues to expand.The high-value areas are mainly distributed in the eastern and southern regions,and the low-value areas are mainly distributed in the western and northern regions.Mainly distributed in the eastern region;the high-value areas of per capita GNP affecting the degree of non-grain conversion of cultivated land are mainly distributed in the western region,and the low-value areas are mainly distributed in the eastern region;the high value of the impact of total population on the degree of non-grain conversion of cultivated land The low-value areas are mainly distributed in the northern regions;the positive impact of urbanization rate on the non-grain conversion process of cultivated land is the largest in the northwest.(5)Studies have shown that in plain areas with smaller slopes,it is more conducive to the planting of cash crops.It can be seen that the higher the quality of plain cultivated land,the greater the risk of non-grain conversion,and the trend of non-grain conversion is more severe in areas with relatively backward traffic.severe.With the rapid development of urbanization and the continuous improvement of living standards,people’s economic income has greatly improved,and their demand for food other than grain is stronger.Therefore,farmers are also tending to plant non-food crops,which is also an important reason for the increasing non-food use of cultivated land.