Study On The Recovery Of Pig Supply And Its Associated Effects In China In Post-ASF

In the late stage of African Swine Fever,the supply of pigs in China recovered fast.It is significant to study the macro-economic effects and industrial impacts caused by the resumption of pig supply in China,and to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemics on the pig market in the base scenario.Because this research can provide suggestion to the policy formulation of pig supply in China,and to provide data support for China’s Ministry of Agriculture to study the pig’s industrial planning and development in the next few years.The research content is divided into two parts.Firstly,the global COVID-19 pandemics factor is incorporated into the baseline scenario setting to analyze its potential impact on the entire economic system(including major macroeconomic variables and pig industry variables);secondly,based on the economic data of the late stage of African Swine Fever,a dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used to set different recovery scenarios to study the supply of pigs in the late stage of African swine fever,quantifying both macroeconomic and industrial effects of pig recovery.The conclusions are as follows.(1)in the early stage of African swine fever,the sharp decline in the supply of pigs has a negative impact on China’s industry and the macro-economy;however,the recovery of pig supply has a positive effect,while the global COVID-19 pandemics has a short-term negative impact on the macro-economy and pig industry.(2)From the industrial perspective,the faster the supply of pig recover,the faster the private consumption price of pig declines,the slower the private consumption prices of substitute meats decrease due to the income effect.And with the fast recovery of pig supply,the price of intermediate input industry(such as soybean and other crops)and the price of relevant production factors(such as land and capital)recover fast,and the demand for pig in other food industry recover fast.(3)From the macroeconomic perspective,if the recovery rate of pig supply is increased,the rate of consumer price decline will also increase,and the positive effect on economic growth,investment and household welfare will be increased.The above research has important reference significance for the adjustment of the recovery speed of pig supply and the price stability of pig market in the late stage of African Swine Fever.Specifically,it provides reference information for local governments to formulate policies for recovery of pig subsidies and funding support,and provides reference information for the Ministry of Agriculture to study and formulate the economic development strategy of agricultural and rural pig industry and the development plan in the next few years.