A Study On The Macro Risks Of China’s Overseas Farmland Investment In Southeast Asia

Farmland is the essence of land and an important material basis for human survival and development.Facing the increasingly tight constraints on agricultural production by domestic resources and environment,the use of overseas resources to ensure domestic food security has gradually attracted the attention of Chinese policymakers and researchers.With the in-depth implementation of the agricultural "going out" strategy,the continuous advancement of the "Belt and Road"initiative and the full launch of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area,the favorable agricultural production conditions and development potential in Southeast Asia have been valued by Chinese agricultural investment enterprises.The region has become a key area for China’s overseas farmland investment.According to Land Matrix statistics,as of December 2020,China has intended to invest in 90 overseas arable land projects in 7 countries in Southeast Asia,with a total area of 1,859,200 hectares.However,agricultural planting through overseas farmland investment is not only different from conventional transnational manufacturing,oil and gas and mineral resources investment,but also different from general comprehensive agricultural investment,especially overseas farmland investment is deeply involved in the positive externalities of food security,political and social sensitivity,investment precipitation,but also lead to different implementation difficulties and macro risks.Therefore,exploring the special macro risks faced by Chinese enterprises in the process of investing in overseas farmland in Southeast Asia has important theoretical and applied value for formulating targeted policies to assist enterprises in improving risk prevention and control capabilities,as well as improving the level of food security in China and the region.Based on Land Matrix statistical data,the paper takes the macro risks of China’s overseas farmland investment as the research object,constructs a macro risk evaluation index system for China’s overseas farmland investment,and uses spatial analysis,cloud-matter-element model,obstacle degree model and other methods to evaluate China’s investment in Southeast Asia.The macro risks were systematically analyzed.The study found that:(1)The spatial distribution of China’s overseas farmland investment projects in Southeast Asia is characterized by agglomeration,and the trend of investment projects agglomeration is significant,forming a "Cambodia-Laos" high-density area in space.Among them,Cambodia has formed the main high-density area with the southern Stung Treng as the core,and Laos has formed the secondary high-density area with Vientiane as the core.(2)Currently,the macro risks of overseas farmland investment that China faces in various host countries in Southeast Asia are common,and there are obvious differences in risk categories.On the comprehensive risk level,Cambodia and Myanmar are the highest,the Philippines,Laos and Vietnam are medium,and Malaysia and Indonesia are low.(3)The key factors of China’s overseas farmland investment in Southeast Asia are significantly different in host countries.At the risk level of government governance,democratic accountability and corruption are the key factors;at the level of business environment risk,all indicators have a significant impact;at the level of resource-based risk,the per capita farmland area is the key factor;at the level of risk of relations with China,the degree of investment obstruction is the key risk factor.Based on the above analysis,this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations:(1)From the perspective of government strategy,the strategic framework for overseas farmland investment should be actively deployed.Improving overseas farmland investment legislation,improving the investment insurance system,and establishing an information sharing platform are the main policy measures.(2)From the perspective of enterprise strategy,enterprises should first strengthen their risk awareness.Develop risk response strategies in terms of risk avoidance,risk retention and risk transfer.(3)From the perspective of project strategy,it is necessary to strengthen the risk prevention of China’s overseas farmland investment hotspots,especially the overseas farmland investment projects in Southeast Asia.In general,overseas farmland investment is a new trend of current foreign agricultural investment and cross-border agricultural cooperation.Scientific identification and prevention of investment risks,"preparing for a rainy day" for Chinese enterprises.ensuring the steady operation of overseas farmland investment activities,and safeguarding our country’s food security goals for useful reference.