| The stability of pork and grain is related to the security of the whole country.With the aggravation of geopolitics,many countries are competing fiercely in many fields,and pork safety,as the pillar of people’s livelihood,is becoming more and more important.At present,although there are a number of breeding enterprises with considerable output,but from the market as a whole,the industry concentration is low,supply and demand is still dominated by retail investors.Therefore,the production efficiency of our county’s aquaculture industry is not high,and it lacks competitiveness in the international market.Under this background,the enterprise value evaluation of hog breeding enterprises in our country is helpful for enterprises to carry out mergers and acquisitions,adjust management strategies flexibly,and improve production efficiency,so as to firmly grasp the Chinese people’s rice bowl and avoid being restrained by others.In the past,the enterprise value of hog industry mainly focused on the revision of traditional income method to overcome the subjectivity of future income forecast,but did not involve the discussion of option value combined with the volatility of pig cycle to the uncertainty of enterprise operating status.This paper holds that the formation of pig cycle is essentially a phenomenon of"harm to farmers at low prices" determined by supply.The management status and profitability of the hog breeding industry are facing greater uncertainty.In the choice of evaluation methods,through the analysis of the literature of previous scholars,combined with scholars in agriculture and cyclical industry research.It is pointed out that the cash flow should be modified when the target enterprise is evaluated,and the whole cash flow which can reflect the financing and investment activities is important to the enterprise.The present value of future earnings is used to evaluate the firm’s static value.The real option is introduced to evaluate the value of the uncertainty in the enterprise cycle.That is,the evaluation model of this paper divides the enterprise’s value into the static value and the dynamic value brought by the uncertainty.By revising the traditional income approach to assess the static value,through the B-S model to assess the dynamic value of enterprises.In addition,this paper is based on two factors:on the one hand,Zhengbang technology business model of choice for the company plus farmers model.This model is adopted by most companies in the industry;on the other hand,Zhengbang Technology has developed from the second echelon of the industry to the second leading company in the industry after Muyuan.And this also reflected the development way with high leverage commonly adopted inside course of study.Therefore,a typical case of Zhengbang technology is selected to explore the evaluation model of hog breeding industry more intuitively.Through the enterprise value evaluation of Zhengbang technology,we find that the enterprise value is overestimated in the market at present.This paper holds that investors do not fully recognize the cyclical impact,and blindly optimistic that the profits of enterprises are sustainable.As far as hog breeding enterprises are concerned,they should not expand blindly according to the market rules,and should make corresponding measures to reduce production capacity and liabilities.For evaluators,consider the value of the uncertainty of the pig cycle,but also reduce the subjectivity of the assessment,fully aware of the risks associated with the highly leveraged development model of the enterprise during the downward cycle. |
