Research On Investment Decision-making Model And Application Of Hydrogen-powered Automated Rail-mounted Container Gantry Crane Under The Background Of Green Port

In recent years,in response to the “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals” policy,many ports have tried to adjust ports’ energy structure to promote the green transformation of terminals.The yard crane is an important mechanical equipment part of the port.They undertake the task of container transfer,handling and overturning in the yard area of port production and operation activities.The yard crane is numerous and busy.It consumes a lot of energy,resulting in the problem of carbon dioxide emissions.Therefore,the research on the low-carbon energy transition of yard cranes has become a hotspot in the green ports research field.With the continuous development of clean energy,ports have shifted the focus of alternative fuels from traditional electricity to hydrogen energy.Hydrogen energy is more efficient and environmentally friendly than electricity.Ports have carried out the work of transiting the energy of yard cranes from electricity to hydrogen energy.However,the large-scale construction of hydrogen-powered automated rail-mounted container gantry cranes has characteristics such as high investment costs,and high technical content.In addition,the Chinese hydrogen energy industry and carbon emission trading market are in the early stage of development.The Chinese hydrogen energy industry and carbon emission trading market have market fluctuates greatly,and great uncertainty.The complex investment situation would bring risks to the port investment in the construction of hydrogen-powered automated rail-mounted container gantry cranes.Therefore,this research attempts to construct a theoretical model framework for investment decision-making of hydrogen-powered automated rail-mounted container gantry cranes under the background of green ports.Then this research carries out empirical research based on models.The research’s purpose is to assist ports to avoid economic risks while promoting green construction.The research results would have theoretical and practical significance for promoting the low-carbon transition of port internal infrastructure.Considering the context of green ports,the investment decision-making problem of hydrogen-powered automated rail-mounted container gantry cranes has the characteristics of large investment costs and great uncertainty.Firstly,this research formulates a multi-stage investment plan for hydrogen-powered automated rail-mounted container gantry cranes,identifying option types,establishing a Black-Scholes basic investment decision-making option model,discussing the scale and timing of investment in hydrogen-powered automated rail-mounted container gantry cranes in ports,and preliminarily estimating the investment value of hydrogen-powered automated rail-mounted container gantry cranes construction project.Subsequently,discussing the influence of hydrogen price,carbon price,and technology maturity on the investment decision of hydrogen-powered automated rail-mounted container gantry cranes in-depth,incorporating the influence of uncertain factors into the investment decision model framework,and establishing the multi-factor option model.Integrating more influencing factors into the investment decision-making framework of hydrogen-powered automated rail-mounted container gantry cranes could provide a scientific and reasonable investment decision-making basis for ports.Then,in order to make the model closer to the actual investment situation,this research fully considers the impact of external market changes and emergencies on this investment decision-making problem,introducing jump-diffusion stochastic volatility and Markov chain simulation to accurately describe the fluctuation law of uncertain factors,establishing an improved real options model for hydrogen-powered automated rail-mounted container gantry crane investment decision-making.Finally,based on the above theoretical models,taking the Qingdao Port automated terminal as a case to carry out the case study respectively,and evaluating three real options models based on the case study results.The result shows that,if the port could use the surrounding industrial by-product hydrogen for energy supply,the port will actively carry out the hydrogen power transition of the yard cranes in the early stage to create carbon emission reduction benefits.When the number of hydrogen-powered automated rail-mounted container gantry cranes reaches a certain scale,the port tends to wait and see the market,and gradually promote the construction of hydrogen-powered automated rail-mounted container gantry cranes to reduce investment risks.Among the uncertain factors,the technological breakthrough of hydrogen-powered automated rail-mounted container gantry crane equipment can significantly promote the investment and construction of hydrogen-powered automated rail-mounted container gantry cranes in ports,and the instability of the carbon market will affect the enthusiasm for port construction of hydrogen-powered automated rail-mounted container gantry crane.Increasing the research and development and upgrading of hydrogen power field bridge equipment technology,accelerating the construction of the carbon emission trading market and hydrogen energy market,and actively using industrial by-product hydrogen around the port are all effective methods to accelerate the construction of hydrogen-powered automated rail-mounted container gantry crane projects in ports.