Lianyungang Port Based On Set-pair Analysis Logistics System Vulnerability Study

Ports play an increasingly important role in the transport system and national economic development,and the port logistics system,with ports at its core,plays an important role in ensuring the smooth flow of the international trade supply chain and supporting national economic development.However,the sudden outbreak of the epidemic has caused a short-term impact on China’s economy,resulting in a long-term impact on China’s port logistics.Therefore,this thesis selects the port logistics system of Lianyungang as the research object,takes the impact of the economic shock caused by the new epidemic on the port logistics system as the research background,explores the key vulnerability-causing factors of the port logistics system based on a vulnerability perspective,and proposes anti-fragile strategies in order to provide a theoretical basis for the efficient and safe operation and sustainable development of the port logistics system of Lianyungang.Firstly,the research on the port logistics system is reviewed,and the vulnerability of the port logistics system and its characteristic elements are defined in the light of vulnerability theory,based on which the vulnerability formation mechanism of the port logistics system is studied from the perspective of coupling internal and external influencing factors.The vulnerability of the port logistics system is assessed quantitatively using the CRITIC-entropy method and the set-pair analysis method,and the validity of the quantitative results obtained by the CRITIC-entropy method and the set-pair analysis method is verified using the comprehensive index method.Finally,the qualitative and quantitative vulnerability assessments were combined to propose anti-fragile strategies for the port logistics system of Lianyungang from three aspects: port logistics infrastructure and services,port logistics system transportation,and integrated port-industry-city development.The main findings of the study are as follows:(1)By calculating the comprehensive linkage of the vulnerability of the port logistics system it is concluded that the vulnerability of the port logistics system of Lianyungang gradually decreases from 2015 to 2021,from a higher vulnerability in 2015 to a lower vulnerability in 2021.(2)From the assessment results of the indicators and their factor contribution analysis under the exposure characteristics,the degree of economic disturbances and disturbance shocks to the Lianyungang port logistics system decreases after 2017;the factor contribution analysis shows that the consumer price index is the key vulnerability-causing factor of the port logistics system under this characteristic factor.(3)From the assessment results of the indicators under the sensitivity factor and their factor contribution analysis,the changes in the system caused by the combination of hinterland economic disturbances and inherent structural cumulative vulnerability have decreased after 2017;the factor contribution analysis shows that the number of ships arriving at the port is the key vulnerability factor of the port logistics system under this factor.(4)The assessment of the indicators under the adaptability factor and its factor contribution analysis show that the ability to recover or adapt to changes caused by the combination of economic disturbances and inherent structural cumulative vulnerabilities is unstable;the factor contribution analysis indicates that GDP growth rate is the key vulnerability factor of the port logistics system under this factor.