| In today’s world where energy,resources and environmental constraints are increasingly prominent,green and sustainable development has become a consensus of the whole society.As one of the pillar industries of national economic development,the construction industry is also a key focus of green development reform.Traditional cast-insite construction,due to its low production efficiency and environmental unfriendliness,can no longer meet the current social development needs.Based on this background,prefabricated construction has been rapidly promoted under the strong promotion of the government and widely applied in daily construction production activities.However,in this process,problems such as high construction costs and unstable component supply have greatly affected the overall promotion process of prefabricated construction.Especially,the uncertainty of prefabricated component lead-time often leads to cost overrun and schedule delay of prefabricated construction projects.This situation can lead to huge delay loss risk for downstream assemblers in prefabricated construction supply chain,thus affecting the overall benefit of supply chain.Therefore,lead-time of prefabricated components is a key element that needs to be paid attention to in the process of prefabricated construction supply chain management.In order to further improve the ability to cope with lead-time uncertainty risk of prefabricated construction supply chain,this paper combines characteristics of prefabricated construction and actual situations of prefabricated construction supply chain management.On the basis of traditional single sourcing mode for prefabricated components,a second prefabricated component manufacturer is introduced to systematically explore decision mechanism of prefabricated construction supply chain under both single sourcing and dual sourcing modes.At the same time,considering cooperative decision-making behavior that may be carried out between upstream and downstream enterprises in the supply chain,this paper establishes profit optimization model for prefabricated construction supply chain under three situations: complete competition,competitive cooperation and complete cooperation respectively.At last,by comparing the influences of two procurement modes and relationship status between supply chain members on optimal decision and maximum profit for prefabricated construction supply chain,relevant theoretical references and management enlightenment for prefabricated construction supply chain management have provided.The results show that under the two procurement modes,considering lead-time uncertainty of and the time sensitivity of demand,with the increase of cooperation intensity among members of the prefabricated construction supply chain,the overall performance of the manufacturers and the whole supply chain can be effectively improved,under the condition of determining a relatively more flexible quoted lead-time and reducing the risk of delay.However,the assembler faces relatively small profit loss in both situations.Meanwhile,for the whole supply chain,considering the lead-time uncertainty,the dual sourcing mode has better risk management ability,and can better reduce the delay loss and improve the operational efficiency and stability of the supply chain.However,for the assembler,the maximum profit under the dual sourcing mode is not always higher than that under the single sourcing mode.Only when the time sensitivity of the demand exceeds a certain critical value,the dual-source purchasing mode is the better choice.Therefore,when making procurement strategy,the assembler should monitor market demand preference in real time and adjust procurement strategy accordingly.This paper is of great significance in theory and practice to optimize the operational decision of prefabricated construction supply chain with lead-time uncertainty,and provides suggestions for the further development of prefabricated construction. |
