| Transportation infrastructure has always been regarded as a prerequisite for regional economic development.China’s high-speed rail network has an increasingly significant impact on county economic development.High-speed rail has an important impact on the location choice of enterprises and labor force,which is reflected in a complex spacetime process.Previous studies have not been able to show the characteristics of the changes between enterprises and labor force in the county-level.Therefore,based on the review of relevant researches at home and abroad,the theoretical framework of the impact of high-speed railway on county economic development is constructed from the perspective of economic factors flow.On the basis,we explore the mechanism of the two subdivision economic factors acting on the development of county economy,and propose the conjecture of two major paths for the development and transformation of the counties opened by high-speed rail.Then,we constructed a mathematical model based on the theory of new economic geography.Based on China’s national conditions,we analyzed the agglomeration trend of industrial enterprises and secondary labor force in county units from a mathematical level and put forward three hypotheses.Finally,based on the panel data of 1791 county units in China from 2003 to 2019,multi-period propensity score matching multiple difference method and event analysis method were used to empiricism explore the spatial-temporal effect of high-speed rail network on the agglomeration of industrial enterprises and secondary industry labor force in county units,and verify the conjecture.The results show that:(1)The degree and trend of industrial and secondary labor force agglomeration in the county are affected by high-speed rail.High-speed rail has weakened the agglomeration and growth of industry in the county.Contrarily,the opening of high-speed rail has promoted the relative agglomeration of secondary labor force in county.(2)The long-term impact of high-speed rail on the concentration of county industry and secondary labor has diverged.Before the planning of high-speed railway was put into operation,it has an impact on industrial enterprises,but not on the secondary labor force.The opening of high-speed rail has a significant long-term negative impact on industrial agglomeration,and the negative impact is gradually alleviated over time.The opening of high-speed rail has a long-term positive impact on the concentration of secondary labor force,but its effect does not show obvious regularity due to household registration,land and other institutional and policy factors.(3)By integrating the mathematical analysis,we can infer that the opening of high-speed rail intensifies the "siphon effect" of large cities and encourage the "trickle-down effect" of central cities on neighboring county units.The two effects balance each other and the agglomeration trend of industrial enterprises in high-speed railway county is weakened,while the agglomeration trend of secondary industry labor force is strengthened.According to the control variables,the county economic development level has a significant impact on the agglomeration of industrial enterprises.The supply of new infrastructure services and the distance from the central city have significant effects on the concentration of secondary labor force.Finally,considering the current layout of China’s urban scale system and the economic and geographical characteristics of unbalanced spatial development,the county development mode and the special situation of transportation infrastructure planning and construction,we put forward relevant policy suggestions to provide references for the scientific development of China’s county economy and the planning and construction of the "eight vertical and eight horizontal" high-speed rail network. |
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