Analysis Of Factors Affecting Urban Road Traffic Accidents And Traffic Safety Evaluation

With the increasing number of urban population and motor vehicles in China,the number of casualties in road traffic accidents has been rising year by year,and the traffic safety situation has become increasingly serious.How to accurately analyze the characteristics of urban road traffic accidents and the different characteristics of the influencing factors can provide a theoretical basis for reducing accidents and formulating accident prevention countermeasures.At present,in the analysis and modeling of urban road traffic accident influencing factors and road traffic safety evaluation,traditional models or methods are mostly used to analyze single factors or multiple factors.As the causes of urban road traffic accidents are more complicated,the existing research is less from the system perspective on the holistic analysis of multi-factor coupling,and the depth and attention of the research is less.Therefore,this paper addresses three aspects of urban road traffic accident characteristics,traffic accident influencing factors,and traffic safety evaluation,and establishes an urban road traffic accident influencing factors based on an improved Decision Piloting and Evaluation Laboratory-Explanation StructureCross Influence Matrix Multiplication Method(DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC)based on the statistical analysis of urban road traffic accident characteristics systematic analysis model,so as to explore the mechanism of the internal influencing factors of the accident,and reasonably construct the urban road traffic safety evaluation index system,and use the improved Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method to evaluate the road traffic safety situation,with a view to proposing preventive countermeasures from the perspective of accident characteristics and the overall perspective of the accident.Firstly,this paper takes urban roads as the research object and takes the data of 1453 effective road traffic accidents occurred in a city in South China in 2018 as the research basis,and the accident data are statistically analyzed in terms of time distribution,type distribution,and morphological distribution characteristics,and the four factors of driver,vehicle,road,and environment are initially analyzed.Then,based on the distribution characteristics of urban road traffic accidents and statistical analysis of accident influencing factors,the improved DEMATEL Model was used to explore the dominant degree(centrality)of each influencing factor in the urban road traffic accident system,and the influencing factors were divided into two categories of causal factors and consequential factors,and the hierarchical structure between the factors was drawn by the ISM Model,and the MICMAC Model was used to The dependency and driving force profiles of each factor are carried out to visualize the influence relationship between each factor and between each factor and the system,and the results are compared and analyzed with the traditional DEMATEL Model and cluster analysis method solutions to verify the reliability and accuracy of the optimization model.Finally,on the basis of the analysis of factors influencing urban road traffic accidents,the traffic safety evaluation index system is reasonably constructed,and the optimized DEMATEL Model is used to modify the weight coefficients of the degree of influence of each factor in the system,thus improving the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method and objectively evaluating the urban road traffic safety situation.The results of the improved DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC Urban Road Traffic Accident Influence Factor System Analysis Model and the improved Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method show that the selected urban road traffic safety conditions are at an average level.Among the selected 18 urban road traffic accident influencing factors,the weather condition factor is a strong driver,has a higher degree of influence in the accident system,and is the root influencing factor of the accident;the intersection section type and road alignment are the middle influencing factors of the accident;the driver operation status and vehicle type are more dependent,and are vulnerable to other factors in the accident system,and are the surface influencing factors of the accident.