| With the steady growth of the national economy and the improvement of the People’s demand for the material standard of living,People’s demand for travel continues to increase and their requirements are also increasing.There has been a quiet shift in travel patterns,the tourism model of “scenic spot tourism” has been gradually replaced by the model of “all-region tourism ”.The development of tourism transportation has ushered in new development opportunities,but also faces urgent problems to be solved.Firstly,based on the data of off-peak and peak seasons from 2016 to 2019,this paper establishes a single demand forecast model and combined demand forecast to forecast the vehicle transport capacity scale of Xi ’an tourist chartered car market,and selects the result with the highest prediction accuracy as the final prediction result.Secondly,based on analysis software such as database and Python,this paper uses relevant model methods to design a scientific and reasonable index system and method for measuring the passenger flow and the capacity of chartered tourist buses,and analyzes the mechanism of the balance between supply and demand of chartered tourist buses by analyzing the influencing factors such as the supply of tourist buses,the business scope,the production utilization rate of vehicles and the utilization rate of chartered tourist buses.Seek the relationship between tourist chartered bus passenger flow demand,vehicle utilization rate,average passenger space and transport capacity demand,stablish the index system of influencing factors,and the demand is forecasted by different demand forecasting models.According to the forecast results and the calculation results of the demand model of chartered bus scale,the capacity scale of chartered bus can be reasonably determined.Based on the reality of Xi’an,this paper firstly calculates and analyzes the operating efficiency of tourist chartered bus enterprises and their operating efficiency in the off-peak season,and takes all kinds of vehicles and business operation efficiency in a certain period of time as the object of analysis,and studies its changing trend.Secondly,the transport capacity before and after the epidemic as well as in different periods of tourism off-peak and peak seasons was calculated to obtain the total transport capacity and vehicle capacity of different types under different market demands in different periods.In this paper,the results of the prediction model and the actual results of the established transport capacity scale demand calculation model were compared,analyzed and summarized,analyzed the impact of the epidemic on passenger chartered buses,and made reasonable optimization suggestions for the future transport capacity of tourist chartered buses.The calculation results of this paper can also provide a certain scientific basis for the decision-making of tourism chartered bus enterprises and relevant management departments.The results prove that the calculation model of transport capacity scale demand established in this paper can provide a basis for the transport capacity demand prediction of the tourism passenger transport industry.Through the forecast of tourist flow demand and the scale calculation of tourist chartered bus capacity,on the one hand,it is helpful for tourist chartered bus enterprises to adjust the transport capacity allocation arrangement,optimize the transport capacity allocation structure,improve the level of tourist passenger transport service system,save the dynamic input cost of enterprises,and provide passenger transport services guided by passenger travel needs.On the other hand,it helps to ensure the supervision efficiency of the relevant administrative departments,so as to establish the management system and sound management system.Not only promoting the rapid development of the tourism chartered bus industry,but also promote the transformation and upgrading of the tourism model.Therefore,the study of this paper is of great significance for the "all-region tourism" society. |
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