| The task of traffic construction in the new period urgently needed to provide afast, comfortable, convenient, safe transportation and urban transport service systemfor people’s production and life, which promote the optimization and adjustment ofChina’s transportation structure healthily, orderly and sustainablely. In recent years,by building high-speed railway, the comprehensive passenger transport hubs haveturned into the important distribution and transit junction in the externaltransportation and urban transport. Beijing South Railway Station operated in2008,hanghai Hongqiao integrated transport hub opened in2010, HaXi integratedtransport hub put into use in2012, and so on, which has become the symbol oftransport infrastructure of transport development in the new period. The passengertransport demand of hub directly affect the scale of the facility and project cost，related to meet travel demand and project residents high quality economic efficiencyand the ability to resist risks. Therefore, how to fix the sorts of passenger transportdemand of the comprehensive hub reasonably and accurately，become a guidingsubject to control the scale of hub and to improve the service level of the hub.Defining the connotation of urban integrated passenger transport hub from thepoint of transport engineering, the characteristics of urban integrated passengertransport hub have been analyzed, the suitablity of hub type have been analyzed,combined with the city type. The prerequisite is that the passengers have ready,willing, and need the ability to purchase passenger service. Define the studyingscope of passenger demand of urban integrated transport hub, which is referring tothree aspects of external passenger transport demand, transfer demand, and parkingdemand. Based on the investigation and analysis of the travelers’ characteristics insome hub, the formation mechanism of the passengers’ transport willingness andregular pattern of choice has been analyzed, the concept of the passengers’dependence degree on the traits of the passenger transport service has beenintroduced, passenger transport willingness has been characterized, which would bereflected by quantifying the passengers’ transport will. Taking the model thatdifferent probability distribution complying with multiple probability distribution ashypothesis, it would find out different kinds of transport desire and the related dependence degree.Drawing lessons from the existing forecast theory and method of passengertransport demand of the hub, this article brings forward that the analysis of the areatransportation demand should follow the multi-layer forecast system---“urbansociety’s external passenger transportation demand forecast---multi-modaltransportation demand distribution forecast---single hub single-modal demandforecast---single hub multi-modal demand forecast”. Against the urban societybackground,24indicators of four categories which are relevant factors influencingthe transportation demand would be taken as input variables, and the forecastmethod “dot product-translation vector machine” will be raised. Moreover, the otherindicators such as per-capita disposable income and per-capita consumptionexpenditure, will be taken as disturbance variables, and then predict the probabilitydistribution of the transportation modes in next period of time. It could be predictedthe passenger throughput under specific mode from the specific hub in the future,according to the current hub amount and the direction coefficient data survey. Thepredicted results show that with the development of economy and traffic facilitiesand equipment level, passenger transportation development of aviation, high-speedrail will be significantly improved based on their high-speed and comfortcharacteristics.Define the transferrfing demand of hub could be divided into two classes,namely between external transportation modes, and between external transportionand urban transport. Put forward the transferring demand forecasting approach ofbetween two kinds of external transportation modes. Taken two parameters ofaccessibility factors and convenience factors as evaluation indexes, a calculationmodel on passenger transfer demand between high speed railway and highway waspresent. The parameters calibration has been put forward. Take the passengerminimum action for maximum utility assumption, at the same time, under theassumption of passenger hub age structure does not change with time, constructionof transportation and urban transport transfer prediction model, predict the futureyear hub passenger on the transfer mode demands and probability.In view of the hub influence scope and passenger transfer demands, four typesof the parking demand was divided, namely, external-transfer, shuttle guest, tempvisitors and convert. By the influence factors of external-transfer parking demand, a forecast demand of S shape curve was used to evaluate the parameters. An approachis present to predict the different demand of parking. Taken sharing the optimalparking location as target function, the approach can be used to calculate the sharedparking location in the comprehensive hub. A case was analyzed and simulated toverify the proposed approach.It is the breaking point that is researching on the demand forecasting methodsand models. This article aims to put forward one set of analysis and forecast method,serving external transport, transferring and parking in the comprehensive hub. Thismethod system would provide some reference value for the planning, feasibilitystudy and design works of the integrated hub, particularly for the one mainly withhigh-speed rail and urban rail. It also would be helpful to improve the forecastmethod and to enhance the forecast precision. |
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