Research On Demand Forecasting Method Of Demand Response Bus Passenger Transport

With the rapid development and popularization of information technology,demand-responsive public transportation is bound to become a new mode of public transportation,and is widely used.However,for specific cities,the timing of application is particularly important because of the social demand and economic benefits involved.At present,there are relatively few studies on demand forecasting for this mode,and mature methods and techniques are far from being developed.Therefore,this thesis addresses the willingness to ride demand-responsive public transportation and travel demand forecasting methods.Firstly,the thesis analyzes the prospects of demand-responsive bus applications and discusses the functional positioning and operation organization model of demandresponsive buses.On this basis,the methodological framework of demand response bus demand estimation is determined in conjunction with the organizational model.Then,in terms of influencing factors and survey methods of demand response bus ride intention,the factors affecting residents’ transfer decision were selected from traveler’s personal characteristics,travel characteristics and demand response bus characteristics,the SP&RP questionnaire method was designed,and psychological latent variables were selected to build a structural equation model based on individual perception to analyze the mechanism of each influencing factor.The analysis method of the significant influence factors of users’ transfer to demand-responsive public transport is determined.In the prediction of willingness to ride,a probability model for predicting the willingness to ride demand-responsive public transportation was constructed by selecting the significant influencing factors,and the calibration and accuracy testing methods of the multivariate logistic model were analyzed.In terms of urban demand estimation,a logistic prediction method based on classification analysis was conducted.Finally,the willingness of residents to ride under the single influencing factor of fares was studied,and the potential demand of S city residents to ride demand-responsive public transportation was estimated,and the amount of transportation transferred to demand-responsive public transportation by city residents was obtained.