| In recent years,the country has successively introduced a series of support policies for affordable rental housing,aiming to alleviate the housing difficulties of new citizens,young people and other groups.Due to the initial stage of affordable rental housing,it is facing various risks such as government regulation,financial system,land acquisition,construction,and market operation,which poses severe challenges for enterprises to construct and operate affordable rental housing projects.Therefore,accurately identifying and effectively evaluating various risks of affordable rental housing projects,and then proposing targeted risk response measures,has become an urgent task to promote the high-quality development of affordable rental housing.This article analyzes the risks of affordable rental housing projects at various stages from the perspective of investment enterprises.Firstly,the literature research method is used to preliminarily identify the risk factors of affordable rental housing projects.Then,the system dynamics method is combined to further explore potential risk factors,and the interrelationships between various risks are considered.Based on system dynamics,a risk identification feedback chart is drawn using the software Vensim PLE;Secondly,based on the risk identification feedback chart,a risk stock flow chart is drawn,and the weight of each risk factor is calculated using the order relationship analysis method(G1 method).Then,a system dynamics equation is established to construct a quantitative risk evaluation model for affordable rental housing projects,and the effectiveness and reliability of the established evaluation model are verified;Finally,the evaluation model is applied to practical cases for empirical research.Research has found that in the early stages,investment decision-making risks belong to high risks,and the more sensitive risk factors are policy risks and project site selection risks;Financing risk belongs to medium to high risk,while planning and design risk belongs to medium risk.During the construction phase,the risk of construction period belongs to high risk,and the most sensitive risk factor is the insufficient capacity of the contractor;The construction cost risk belongs to medium to high risk,while the construction quality risk and construction safety risk belong to medium risk.In the operational stage,operational financial risks belong to high risks,and the more sensitive risk factors are insufficient operator capabilities and insufficient or inadequate government subsidies;The operational market risk belongs to medium to high risk,while the operational safety risk belongs to medium risk.By strengthening policy research,selecting appropriate project locations,emphasizing contractor capabilities,carefully selecting operators,and addressing inadequate government subsidies,measures have to some extent reduced investment decision-making risks,construction schedule risks,and operational financial risks.This article identifies and evaluates various potential risk factors,proposes targeted risk response measures,and provides theoretical and practical basis for enterprises to invest and operate affordable rental housing,striving to achieve more systematic and institutionalized risk management.To ensure that enterprises effectively avoid risks and ensure returns in investment and operation,thereby enhancing their investment enthusiasm and promoting the high-quality development of national affordable rental housing. |
