Research On Safety Risk Correlation And Expert Decision Support Of Railway Locomotive System

In order to ensure the important deployment of the outline objectives of the 14 th five year plan for accelerating the construction of a powerful country in transportation science and technology and realize the sustainable development of the railway traffic safety system,taking an operation reservoir area of the Shanghai locomotive depot of China Railway Shanghai Bureau Group Co.,Ltd.as the research object,this paper studies the relationship between the safety risk factors of the railway locomotive system,and constructs an expert decision support system for railway locomotive safety risk,In order to realize the systematic and intelligent management and control of the safety risk of the railway locomotive system.Firstly,the HAZOP method is used to identify the safety risk factors in the maintenance system,and the risk factors including 4 level-1 units,8 level-2 units and 42 level-3 unit nodes of equipment and facilities,personnel,safe operation management and environment are found.According to the deviation analysis of the identified key risk nodes and the deduction of the possible consequences of the deviation,the causes of the deviation are analyzed,so as to formulate targeted prevention and control measures to provide support for the construction of the safety risk evaluation index system of railway locomotive system.Then,aiming at the key nodes in the whole driving process of the locomotive system,combined with the order relationship analysis method,the weight of the risk index is optimized and analyzed,and the index evaluation system is established;Then,the classical interpretation structure model is improved by using fuzzy mathematics and fuzzy matrix theory,and a fuzzy interpretation structure model(FSIM)based on fuzzy theory is constructed to analyze the correlation between risk factors and obtain the hierarchical diagram of safety risk interpretation structure of railway locomotive system.Through the analysis of five levels including top-level factors,transition factors and bottom-level factors,It can realize the systematic definition of the internal relationship between the risk factors of the maintenance system.Thirdly,on the basis of comprehensively considering the influence of uncertain factors on risk expression forms,combined with the constructed FSIM model,this paper constructs the fuzzy cross influence matrix multiplication model(FMICMAC)of railway locomotive system to realize the classification and processing of risk factors at each level.At the same time,the concepts of driving force and dependence are introduced to deeply excavate the internal relationship of risk factors.Achieve more accurate decision support for security risk management.Finally,an expert decision support system based on railway locomotive safety is designed.Based on a large number of locomotive accident data,the system function modules and core business processes are designed.The system supports operators’ real-time query of locomotive risk,experts’ online answer to risk problems and risk decision support based on big data,so as to realize the intelligent management and control of the whole process of railway locomotive operation.The results show that the FSIM model and FMICMAC model can well redefine the forms of risk factors and describe their internal relationship in depth and accurately.At the same time,the expert decision support system established by this model also provides more convenient technical support for the decision-making of risk managers.