| With the changing ice conditions in the Arctic,the possibility of developing the vast oil and gas resources in the Arctic has increased,and so has the global attention it has attracted.The Arctic is a strategic location for China to expand its energy channels;the Arctic shipping lane is an important route for China to build a globalized and interconnected maritime network;China will contribute Chinese power in Arctic affairs and establish a positive interaction with Arctic countries.China’s participation in Arctic energy development will have different degrees of impact on China’s energy demand security,supply security and transportation security.At present,some scholars believe that the Arctic energy development can solve the problems of China’s energy supply shortage and have a positive impact on China’s energy security.While Some scholars believe that there are uncertain risks in the development of Arctic energy,such as environmental changes in the Arctic shipping routes.This paper predicts the potential of Sino-Russian energy cooperation in the Arctic region and quantitatively assesses its impact on China’s energy security on this basis.This study is used to provide a reference for China to accurately grasp the dynamic impact of Arctic energy development on China’s energy security.In the first chapter,the introductory part of this paper illustrates the background,significance,research content,innovation points and technical lines of the article.In the second chapter,a literature review is conducted to review the current status of research on Arctic energy,the current situation of China’s energy security,the definition and measurement of energy security,and Sino-Russian energy cooperation.Chapter 3 analyzes China’s energy security at three levels: China’s energy demand security,supply security,and import and transportation channels.In Chapter 4,based on Chapter 3,11 factors related to China’s energy security are selected and explained one by one,based on the measurability and availability of data related to Sino-Russian energy cooperation.Chapter 5 begins with a review of Russian and Chinese policies on Arctic energy development in recent years and the current situation of Russian and Chinese energy cooperation and development in the Arctic region.On this basis,the existing energy reserves of Russia in the Arctic region are analyzed,and the scale of energy cooperation is used as an assessment indicator to predict the potential of SinoRussian cooperation in natural gas in the Arctic region.Chapter 6 analyzes China’s energy demand security,supply security and environmental security respectively using the energy security index method based on the forecast data of China-Russia energy cooperation potential in the Arctic region and the panel data of China’s energy import concentration and other related influencing factors.At the same time,in the case of further assessing the degree of impact of Sino-Russian Arctic energy cooperation on China’s overall energy security,energy demand,supply and environmental security weights are assigned to finally calculate China’s overall energy security index and analyze the changes of China’s energy security index before and after Sino-Russian Arctic energy cooperation.The study draws the following relevant conclusions: the assessment of annual gas production in the Russian-Chinese Arctic energy cooperation project shows that gas production capacity is expected to be 28.46 million tons in 2023,growing to36.47 million tons in 2024 and reaching 44.65 million tons in 2025.In addition,fluctuations in China’s energy security have been dominated by energy supply,which is mainly affected by the over-concentration of energy import sources.After considering China’s cooperation with Russian Arctic oil and gas resources,China’s energy supply security has significantly improved,from 0.3866 in 2020 to an expected 0.4827 in 2025.Energy demand and environmental security will also have an far-reaching influence on China’s energy security,but compared to energy demand,environmental security factors such as the share of clean energy consumption and the safety factor of waterways have an energy security has a greater impact.The environmental security index will increase from 0.51 in 2020 to 0.67 in 2025,which shows that the use of the Arctic shipping lanes by Russian and Chinese energy transport will to some extent alleviate China’s "Malacca dilemma".Strengthening energy cooperation with Russia in the Arctic region can largely enhance China’s overall energy security.Therefore,increasing the use of clean energy can help achieve China’s carbon emission target;actively participating in the construction of infrastructure and traffic data network of the Northern Passage can help improve the interconnection capacity of the Northeast Passage and give full play to the function of the Northeast Passage as a strategic energy route,which can effectively guarantee China’s energy security.In the future,China can make use of technical,financial and scientific research support to carry out all-round and multi-disciplinary cooperation with Russia in Arctic waterway construction,port infrastructure construction,icebreaker technology,oil and gas resources exploration and extraction technology. |
