| China’s vast territory and extensive mountain ranges,in order to break through the mountain terrain on the development of land transportation constraints,a large number of tunnel construction.Compared with ordinary civil engineering When the construction risks are not well understood and controlled,construction accidents are likely to occur and cause significant losses.In order to effectively control the occurrence of tunnel construction accidents,it is particularly important to assess the level of tunnel construction risks,however,the tunnel construction environment is complex,there are many processes,construction variables and a variety of risk factors,to achieve a targeted and accurate tunnel risk assessment is difficult,so the exploration and study of tunnel construction risk assessment methods for the promotion of tunnel construction safety work is of great practical significance.In this paper,the construction risk assessment of Mazui Tunnel of Huaiyang Expressway was studied by using WBS-RBS analysis method,weighted average method,improved expert survey method,hierarchical analysis method(AHP),CRITIC method,game theory method,state variable weight method,improved harmony equation evaluation method and risk matrix method,etc.The following research results were obtained:(1)Systematic analysis of the mechanism of tunnel construction risk accidents,the construction risk assessment of the Mazui Tunnel of Huaiyang Expressway was clarified as follows: first estimate the level of probability of risk occurrence and the level of consequences of risk occurrence for the selected assessment index,and then determine the overall tunnel construction risk level.(2)The process decomposition and risk decomposition were carried out for the construction operations of Mazui Tunnel of Huaiyang Expressway,and 35 operational processes and 24 decomposition risks were obtained,according to which the first round of expert survey was conducted to determine the WBS-RBS coupling matrix of Mazui Tunnel,and 22 risk assessment indexes were selected according to the expert recommendations to complete the construction risk assessment system of Mazui Tunnel of Huaiyang Expressway.(3)The improved harmony equation evaluation method is combined with the state variable weight method to establish a dynamic evaluation model of harmony equation for tunnel construction risk.In the model,the weights of the seven experts in the second round of expert survey are determined based on the expert confidence index and the professional competence of the experts,and the scores of the seven experts are modified by the weighted average method accordingly;the subjective and objective weights of the risk assessment indexes are calculated using the AHP and CRITIC methods respectively,and the best combination of the two weights is obtained using the game theory method to be used as the The initial weights were determined by using the state-variable weights method;the dynamic weights of different indicator states in each risk assessment were determined by using the state-variable weights method;the evaluation method of the harmony equation was improved by introducing the expert risk preference into the harmony equation based on the characteristics of tunnel construction risk assessment and the principle of the harmony equation,and the method of determining the discordance coefficient j in the harmony equation was optimized;through the calculation of the harmony equation and the single indicator The harmony degree of the evaluation object relative to each risk level is obtained through the weighted calculation of the harmony degree matrix and the harmony degree determination value is set to "0",and the risk level of tunnel construction is evaluated through the comparison and analysis of the harmony degree.(4)The dynamic assessment model of the harmony equation established in this paper was used to assess the construction risk of the Mazui Tunnel for 5 consecutive weeks,and the results of the distance between superior and inferior solutions(TOPSIS)method were compared with the assessment results of this paper’s assessment model to prove the reliability of this paper’s model.Using the model in this paper,the construction risk levels of the Mazui Tunnel of Huaiyang Expressway were determined for each week of the 5-week period,with weeks 1 to 5 being high,moderate,high,very high,and extremely high,respectively,and the selected 5-week tunnel construction risk levels were ranked from highest to lowest as week4 > week 5 > week 3 > week 1 > week 2.The results were compared and analyzed with the evaluation results of TOPSIS variable weight method and Harmony equation constant weight method,and the results showed that the Harmony equation tunnel construction risk dynamic evaluation model established in this paper is reliable and practical,and can be used to guide the implementation of the actual project.Finally,based on the risk assessment results of the Mazui Tunnel construction,control measures and accident rescue plans are proposed for the possible risk accidents. |
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