Research On Power Expansion Planning Model And Comprehensive Evaluation Index System Under The Background Of Low-carbon Transformation

In response to the global call for green and low-carbon development,China has included carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the government work report for the first time during the two sessions in 2021.As a key industry to achieve the"double carbon"goal,the power industry has become an urgent research issue to ensure the safe,stable and sufficient supply of electricity while significantly reducing CO₂emissions.This paper considers the key elements that affect the low-carbon transformation of the power structure,and constructs a two-layer iterative model of power planning that co-evolves on the power side and the operation side,so that it can not only output power transformation optimization schemes on a long-term scale but also meet the production simulation runs on a short-term scale.The upper layer is the planning and decision-making layer with the year as the decision-making unit,outputting the power structure transformation plan,taking into account the boundary conditions such as carbon emission constraints,new green and low-carbon technologies,and policy constraints.The lower layer is the simulation verification of production operation in units of hours,which aims to verify whether the power structure scheme output by the upper layer can meet the peak shaving requirements.Select 4 typical days of each year during the planning period for short-term operation simulation verification.If the peak shaving requirements of the system can be met,it is considered that the power planning results of the planning decision-making layer for the year are reasonable.Otherwise,the power planning scheme needs to be readjusted.In order to clarify the best transformation path of the power structure under the low-carbon background,this paper sets up two different energy transition scenarios and establishes a comprehensive evaluation index system for the power planning scheme to conduct research on the transformation path of the power structure under different scenarios.A baseline scenario is set,which assumes that all coal-fired power units will naturally exit after the end of their service life and be replaced by clean energy（such as wind energy,solar energy,etc.）.Scenarios in which the large-scale application of CCUS technology will delay the decommissioning speed of coal power units.The evaluation system includes four first-level indicators of technology,safety,economy and environment,and 10second-level indicators are obtained after further subdivision and quantification of each first-level index,and the weight of dynamic change over time is set.By combining the analytic hierarchy method（AHP）and the degree of focus of each index in the planning period,so as to intuitively compare the advantages and disadvantages of different transformation path power planning schemes.A case study of a provincial power grid in China shows that the model can provide important reference and support for the transformation of power supply structure,and the widespread application of CCUS technology can make coal units take up more base load,thus relieving the pressure of new construction of renewable energy units and making the transformation process of China’s power supply structure smoother.