Experimental And Theoretical Research On Travel Decision-Making Behavior Based On Quantum Probability Theory

One of the main components of the transportation system research is the user’s travel behavior.Over the years,people have attempted to establish various travel behavior choice models to cope with diverse travel needs.Constructing a reasonable travel choice model is the key to accurately predicting travel behaviors.The quantum probability model,derived from quantum mechanics,has been applied to solving human travel choice problems.The quantum decision model is a novel approach based on quantum physics that has demonstrated unique advantages in explaining individual decision-making behavior under uncertain circumstances.It can explain the interference effect,framing effect and order effect which are difficult to explain by the traditional model.In order to construct a more reasonable travel choice model and improve the prediction accuracy of travel behavior,this paper establishes or improves the geometric quantum model,a quantum decision model and a quantum rotation model under the framework of quantum probability theory,and carries out experimental and theoretical research in three parts,so as to objectively and accurately depict the travel choice behavior.In the first part,this paper establishes a general model of geometric quantum model,and analyzes the sensitivity of train and car travel mode selection based on specific situations,considering situational effects,problem interference and different initial belief states.Combined with different preparatory problems,the geometric quantum model is used to realize the transformation from the initial belief state to the final belief state.It is found that geometric quantum model can capture the change of people’s belief state before decision making,further narrowing the gap between stated preference and revealed preference.The research results further enrich the basic theory of traffic choice behavior.In the second part,this paper explores travel choice behavior using the quantum decision model and designs experimental questionnaires that reflect interference,framing,and order effects.Firstly,the experiment introduces the categorization-decision interference,which includes traffic factors,and obtains a new interference parameter.Secondly,four conjunctive fallacy problems related to travel behavior are designed based on the classical Linda problem and new interference coefficients and quantum geometric projection images are obtained.Then,the equate-to-differentiate method is used under the three dimensions of life safety,property loss,time delay,and two descriptions of positive and negative to explain the effect of the frame on decision-making behavior.Finally,by changing the order of the questions to construct the equation of quantum problems,the prediction accuracy of the quantum equation is verified using the order effect scatter plot.The results show that the quantum decision model has theoretical advantages in explaining the superposition state of decision-makers,especially the interference,framing,and order effects.This expands the application of quantum theory in the field of travel choice behavior.In the third part,based on the experimental scene of travel mode choice behavior,this paper selects the state when the system reaches equilibrium as the initial state to investigate the order effect of traveler decision.In the experiment,subjects are designed to listen to the complete information or partial information of subway and car successively,a total of eight sequential conditions were generated.The transitions between states are realized through unitary matrices,and the improved quantum rotation model is used to fit the data.The results show that the improved quantum rotation model incorporates the idea of “computational +heuristic” into the construction of Hermitian matrix at the same time,which greatly improves the data fitting effect.Meanwhile,the setting of two parameters x and γ also enhances the flexibility of the model.The research results of this paper show that the correlation models based on quantum probability theory have better fitting in explaining the travel choice behavior,which solve the experimental results difficult to be explained by the traditional decision model.Moreover,the combination of computational and heuristic thinking can not only improve the performance of the original model,but also realize the dual fitting of process and result data,expanding the application of quantum thinking in the field of transportation travel.