| Kashgar has an excellent location advantage,rich historical and cultural resources,and has formed distinct regional characteristics.Under the background of national policies and guidelines such as the "China-Pakistan Economic Corridor" and the "Belt and Road" initiative,new development opportunities will surely be ushered in.However,the natural environment in the western region is harsh,the economic development is backward,and the extensive urban development has had a certain impact on the natural ecological environment,historical and cultural heritage,etc.As the gateway of my country’s westward opening,Kashgar City has problems such as serious industrial development convergence and unsound industrial system development.Under the background of policy opportunities,it is urgent to promote urban economic and industrial upgrading through the development of urban morphology;Kashgar City is a national historical and cultural city.It is a famous city,but there are problems such as slow progress in the renewal of the old city and loss of historical features and characteristics.In the context of historical and cultural protection,it is urgent to strengthen historical and cultural protection through the development of urban morphology;Kashgar,as a typical oasis city,has problems such as urban sprawl,ecological security threats,and water shortages.Under the background of ecological civilization construction,it is urgent to promote the harmonious coexistence of urban morphology development and natural environment.Based on this,this paper selects Kashgar as the research object,sorts out the development process since 1949,divides the evolution stages of Kashgar’s urban morphology,and then summarizes the evolution process and characteristics of the internal and external forms of urban space,and explores the influence factors of urban morphology.mechanism.Finally,based on the multi-scenario plan,it simulates the evolution of Kashgar’s urban morphology,and puts forward practical suggestions for the development of Kashgar’s urban morphology.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The evolution stage of the urban morphology of Kashgar: sort out the location conditions,natural resources and environmental foundation of Kashgar,and clarify the historical evolution,site changes,evolution context and historical remains of Kashgar.By collecting statistical yearbooks,local chronicles and other data,selecting macro-representative elements such as policy and planning,population and society,industry and economy,construction and land use,the evolution stages of Kashgar’s urban morphology are divided into 1949,1984,1998,2010.Years,2015,and 2021 are the time nodes,which are defined as five key stages of urban morphology evolution.(2)Evolution law of urban morphology in Kashgar: Based on Arc GIS,SPSS,Depth Map platform,through spatial expansion matrix,equal sector analysis,boundary dimension analysis,compactness analysis,space syntax,mixing degree analysis,circle layer analysis,kernel density analysis analysis,etc.It is concluded that the urban morphology of Kashgar presents the evolution characteristics of central aggregation,axial growth,breakthrough expansion,optimized filling,multi-directional spread and leap-forward development at each stage.The area of urban construction land is expanding rapidly,the road network structure is gradually improved,and leapfrog development has been initially achieved.It has gradually transformed from the single-center cluster layout of the ancient city of Kashgar to a multi-center cluster layout.(3)Influence mechanism of urban morphology evolution in Kashgar: Combined with the stage characteristics of urban morphology evolution,analyze the mechanism of influence of natural environment,policy planning,social population,economic industry,transportation and other influencing factors.It can be concluded that natural environment factors mainly provide space for urban expansion and are the bearing basis of urban morphology;policy planning factors mainly guide the evolution of urban morphology through policy guidance and planning formulation;social demographic factors mainly attract population gathering,It has become the core of the development of urban morphology;economic and industrial factors mainly promote industrial development and become the main driving force for the evolution of urban morphology;transportation factors mainly through strengthening the construction of transportation facilities,become the basic guarantee for the evolution of urban morphology.(4)Simulation and prediction of the evolution of Kashgar’s urban morphology:Based on the future land use simulation model,combined with the natural environment,policy planning,social population,economic industry,transportation and other influencing factors to simulate and predict the evolution of Kashgar’s urban morphology.Use the artificial neural network to make a probability atlas of Kashgar’s suitability development,use the Markov model to predict the future development scale of Kashgar,and use the cellular automata of the adaptive inertia mechanism to simulate and predict Kashgar.For the evolution of urban spatial morphology,the Kappa coefficient is used to verify the simulation accuracy,and the morphological erosion dilation is used to extract the boundary of urban construction land in Kashgar City.Set up a multi scenario development plan to predict the expansion of urban morphology in Kashgar in 2027.Simulating and predicting the evolution of urban morphology can more clearly reflect the game process between urban construction land and natural environment from the perspective of land use.(5)Optimization strategy for the evolution of Kashgar’s urban morphology: to establish a problem-oriented optimization idea,to propose an optimization strategy to preserve the oasis ecology and consolidate the security pattern for the natural environment of Kashgar;to propose an integrated culture for the social population of Kashgar resources,and optimization strategies for improving public services;for Kashgar’s economic and industrial aspects,it proposes an optimization strategy for building an industrial core based on its location advantages;for Kashgar’s transportation,it proposes an optimization strategy for optimizing the transportation system and improving internal and external traffic.At the same time,Kashgar City should make a reasonable layout of the urban morphology in accordance with the regulation of policies and the guidelines of planning. |
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