Research On Passenger Flow Prediction And Train Organization Optimization Strategy Of New Urban Rail Line

With the continuous improvement of China’s urbanization level,the number of motor vehicles has increased rapidly,and the problem of urban traffic congestion has become increasingly prominent.Urban rail transit is a public transport mode with large traffic volume,which is in line with the concept of green travel.During the 13 th Five Year Plan period,many cities vigorously developed rail transit,and the operating mileage of rail lines increased rapidly.The access of many new rail lines improved the urban rail network,which had an impact on the passenger flow distribution on the rail network,especially on the passenger flow of existing lines.During the line planning period,reasonably predicting the short-term rail passenger flow under the condition of new line access and its impact on the existing rail network will help the rail management department master the change law of passenger flow,allocate resources in a timely and effective manner,and build an optimal adjustment scheme for train organization.Taking the passenger flow of each line under the opening of the new line and the influence degree of the existing line as the research object,this paper explores the change law of urban rail network structure and passenger flow after the new line is connected,and analyzes the internal and external influence of rail passenger flow.Combined with the forms and characteristics of new line access,build an appropriate passenger flow prediction model based on the clustering of rail station types,pay attention to the passenger flow distribution of the overall rail network,explore the passenger flow impact of the existing line after the opening of the new line,select an appropriate passenger flow impact evaluation scheme,quantify the impact of each station and section,identify the existing problems,and put forward the corresponding train organization optimization strategy.This paper analyzes the change law of network structure after the opening of the new line from the access form,network topology characteristics and accessibility characteristics of the new line,expounds the growth law of rail passenger flow from the influencing factors such as passenger flow composition and land use,and then puts forward the impact of the new line on the passenger flow and passenger flow balance of the existing line.This paper proposes a rail station clustering method based on the passenger flow curve of the incoming and outgoing stations,combined with the land use attribute within the influence range of the rail station,judges the similarity between the new line station and the existing station type,and predicts the passenger flow curve of the new line station.The linear regression model of land development intensity and passenger flow is constructed to predict the passenger flow of new line stations.From the perspective of passenger flow composition,the prediction methods of natural growth passenger flow,induced passenger flow and transferred passenger flow on existing lines are analyzed,and the network OD distribution prediction method based on attraction coefficient method and natural growth coefficient method is proposed.This paper explores the impact of new line passenger flow on each section of the existing line from the perspective of passenger flow impact,selects a total of five evaluation indicators from the station level and line level,and constructs a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model from the perspective of passenger travel experience and train capacity.The entropy weight method is used to calculate the weight of each index,so as to judge the comprehensive impact of each station and section,and reveal the location of key track stations and section.Based on the passenger flow impact evaluation of the existing line,diagnose the possible problems of excess capacity,shortage of capacity or imbalance of passenger flow of the existing line after the opening of the new line,and put forward the train organization optimization strategy from the perspective of train formation,train routing and train parking scheme.Taking the opening of Suzhou rail line 5 as the research background,this paper forecasts the passenger flow of the new rail line and the existing Suzhou rail line 2,evaluates its impact on the passenger flow of line 2,diagnoses the imbalance of passenger flow,and puts forward the optimization strategy of train organization.