Study On Passenger Flow Forecast And Distribution Of Urban Rail Transit Network For New Rail Lines

Currently, China has become the most rapidly developing urban rail transit country all over the world. Urban rail transit cannot be built into enormous scale in one time because of its high cost and long construction period. Therefore each city will experience the process of operation network expansion in the development of urban rail transit. During this expansion process, the new lines access has a tremendous impact on the passenger flow of the existing operation network. So it is very necessary to study passenger flow forecast before new lines accessed to the existing operation network.First of all, this paper emphasis the necessity of new lines access passenger flow forecast by analyzing several large-scale cities about urban rail transit operation, planning and construction condition in China then finds a large number of new lines are under construction. Meanwhile, this paper will analyze the changes of passenger flow after new lines accessing based on the history data. And then, this paper summarizes the laws based on the impact that the new lines accessing to the existing operation network about the varieties of entrance and exit passenger flow, transfer passenger flow and section passenger flow.Secondly, this paper forecasts the entrance and exit passenger flow of existing stations in three respects including natural change passenger flow, induced and shift passenger flow caused by the new lines access. Then the paper forecasts the entrance and exit passenger flow of new lines stations via the method of urban rail transit stations cluster analysis by K-Means and new stations evaluation. After the integration of forecast results of the existing and new station entrance and exit passenger flow, the correlation function for OD distribution ratio, station spacing, transfer times and outbound volume is built based on the historical OD distribution laws. Fitting the function for different categories which is used for the new station’s OD distribution forecast.Finally, this paper will bulid passenger flow distribution model for rail transit network through road network structure, path generalized cost function, path searching algorithm, route choice model, multi-path probability distribution model and simulation mechanism of passenger flow for urban rail transit. Passenger flow simulation will be done based on the prediction results for the new OD distribution. Case validation study is done with the 4 new lines access to Beijing city rail transit at the end of 2014 and got the change of passenger flow in Beijing urban rail transit.This paper puts forward a method to forecast entrance and exit passenger flow, network OD matrix and real-time OD distribution for the new urban rail transit lines access, as well as providing a new idea for the new lines access passenger flow forecast.