Risk Management Study Of Offshore Photovoltaic Power Generation Investment Project Decision Under The "Grid Parity" Policy

The traditional power system is dominated by fossil energy,and it is necessary to establish a new power system dominated by new energy to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality.Offshore photovoltaic power generation has become a globally recognized PV application scenario,and in China’s coastal areas where land resources are relatively tight,offshore photovoltaic power generation will become an important part of new energy installations.However,investment in offshore photovoltaic power generation is still subject to market and policy,technical,financial,project implementation and ESG(environmental,social and governance)risk factors,and the investment risk is high under the "grid parity" policy.Effective risk management for investment project decisions is an important guarantee for the success of investment projects.In this paper,we study the risk management of offshore photovoltaic power generation investment projects under the "grid parity" policy,which consists of two parts:①Establishing an integrated risk management system for investment project decision making,including a time system for the whole life cycle of investment projects,a negative list of investment projects,risk factors,risk analysis methods,management information,management organization and Risk culture system.The risk management system is organically connected with compliance management and internal control,and embedded in all business management.Risk management process design for investment project decision making,including communication and consultation,scope and environment and criteria determination,negative list screening,risk assessment[quoted from Risk Management Risk Assessment Technique GB/T27971-2011,section 4.2.3 "Risk assessment includes three steps:risk identification,risk analysis,and risk evaluation "],risk response,monitoring and early warning,recording and reporting,and supervision and inspection[1].Combined with the empirical study from the risk management process,a checklist method was used for negative list screening,brainstorming method,structured interview,Delphi method,sensitivity analysis,etc for risk identification,and "AHP-CIM" for risk estimation and evaluation before decision making for an offshore photovoltaic power generation investment project in Tianjin.AHP-CIM" method is used to estimate and evaluate risks,propose risk response measures and plans,and implement risk monitoring and early warning,recording and reporting,and monitoring and inspection to achieve effective risk management of investment projects.The top ten risk factors are feed-in tariff feed-in power,investment control,equipment,contract performance,project quality,project schedule,tariff policy,tax policy and financing cost,among which electricity,feed-in tariff,investment control is the most important risk factors,while price fluctuations and equipment risk factors in the PV module price is the decisive factor for investment control.At this stage,pile-based offshore photovoltaic power generation investment projects are still risky,and floating offshore photovoltaic power generation projects are still waiting for technical breakthroughs and investment risks are greater than pile-based.②The"negative list" screening and exclusion method of investment project risk assessment can avoid the distortion of the assessment results caused by the participation of the"negative list" in the comprehensive risk assessment of the overall investment project;the uncertainty of risk probability is always superimposed layer by layer.The risk probability of uncertainty is always superimposed,so the "CIM" method can obtain the superimposed value of risk;investment project decision-making using the "negative list exclusion+’AHP-CIM’ combination" The method of "negative list exclusion+’AHP-CIM’ combination" can achieve real,reliable and accurate risk assessment results,which can provide scientific basis for investment decision,risk response and monitoring and other risk management.The study concludes that ①the risk management of offshore photovoltaic power generation investment projects under the "grid parity" policy should be carried out throughout the whole life cycle of project creation,design,implementation and termination,highlighting the risk prevention at the source of project creation,focusing on risk assessment,avoiding the negative list of investment,carrying out risk assessment before project creation,adopting feasible risk response measures,strengthening risk monitoring and early warning,and strengthening risk monitoring and monitoring.Measures,strengthen risk monitoring and early warning,record and report management,the whole process control the dynamic trend of risk changes and timely correction,strengthen risk supervision and inspection,can achieve effective risk management.②domestic development and construction of offshore photovoltaic power generation urgently need to do a good job of pile-based photovoltaic power generation investment project risk management experience summary and promotion,and actively explore the risk management of offshore floating photovoltaic power generation investment projects to ensure the healthy and sustainable development of China’s offshore photovoltaic power industry.