| In this paper,Anhui Province is selected as the research area.Through the analysis of the collected data,the temporal and spatial variation of agricultural water consumption in Anhui Province is studied,and the main driving factors affecting the structure of agricultural water consumption in Anhui Province and their influence on the change of agricultural water consumption are determined.On this basis,the GM(1,1)model is established to predict the agricultural water consumption in Anhui Province in 2025,2030 and 2035.At the same time,this paper makes a preliminary study on the change of agricultural water consumption in Pishihang irrigation district,and determines the main driving factors affecting the agricultural water consumption structure in Pishihang irrigation district.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The changes of agricultural water consumption and total water consumption in Anhui Province are similar,showing a trend of increasing first and then decreasing.Industrial water consumption,domestic water consumption and ecological water consumption are on the rise,indicating that the water structure tends to be rationalized.The agricultural water consumption of most prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province generally shows a downward trend,which is similar to or similar to the trend of agricultural water consumption in the whole province.In recent years,the agricultural water consumption in Huaihe River Basin in Anhui Province has shown a slow downward trend,and the agricultural water consumption in Yangtze River Basin and Xin ’anjiang River Basin has remained basically stable.(2)From 2000 to 2009,the information entropy value of agricultural water use structure in Anhui Province increased first and then decreased,indicating that the agricultural water use structure was not stable.The increasing trend from 2010 to 2020 indicates that the structure of agricultural water use is developing in the direction of rationalization.The information entropy value in the province has a large spatial difference,which is generally high in the north and south and low in the middle,among which Lu’an City and Huainan City have a large space for entropy increase.(3)The main factors affecting the structure of agricultural water use in Anhui Province from 2010 to 2020 are social factors(rural per capita disposable income,total resident population,total output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery),irrigation factors(water-saving irrigation area,effective irrigation area),animal husbandry factors(number of large livestock at the end of the year)and precipitation factors(precipitation).Among them,the influence of social factors and irrigation area factors on agricultural water use structure is more significant than that of animal husbandry factors and precipitation factors.(4)The GM(1,1)model is used to predict the agricultural water consumption in Anhui Province in the future.The model fits well and has high accuracy.It is predicted that the agricultural water consumption in Anhui Province will be 138.93,130.84 and 123.23 billion m3 in 2025,2030 and 2035,respectively.(5)The total water consumption in Pishihang irrigation district showed a downward trend,among which agricultural water and industrial water showed a downward trend,and domestic water and ecological water showed an overall upward trend.The main factors affecting the agricultural water use structure in Pishihang irrigation district are social factors(rural per capita disposable income,total resident population and total output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery),irrigation factors(effective irrigation area)and precipitation factors(precipitation).Among them,social factors and irrigation factors have more significant effects on agricultural water use structure than precipitation factors. |
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