| It is very important and has theoretical meaning and parctical value to study the water demand of regional water resources with the increasingly sever problem.Predicting method of the regional irrigation water demand was studied in this dissertation.The main contents were summarized as follows:(1) The existing research of predicting method of the regional irrigation water demand were summairzed by consulting a lot of domestic and overseas literatures.The shortcoming of predicting method of the regional irrigation water demand at present and the research tendency were pointed out.(2) The main factors of irrigation water demand were analysised using qualitative analysis method.Combined the principal component analysis method and correlation analysis method and gray analysis method,the quantitative analysis model between regional irrigation water demand and the factors was set up.(3) A new predicting method for demand of irrigation water is established based on elasticity coefficient prediction method.Combined the regression analysis method and the derivative extrapolation method,predicting model of water demand was set up.(4) Zhengzhou city in Henan province was selected as the example to test the model and method presented above.The results of the quantitative analysis model show that the mainly factors of irrigation water demand in zhengzhou city was rainfall and the area rate between alimentarn crop and commercial crop.The results of predicting model of irrigation water demand show that the irrigation water demand of the year of 2020 and 2030 will be reached 7.13×10~8m~3 and 6.50×10~8m~3 when rainfall frequency is 75%. The results also show the trend of irrigation water quota and demand is down,and the method is feasible.(5) Combined the theory and the application research results,the conculsion and some questions need to be studied deeply in the next work were persented. |
PDF Full Text Request