Research On The Relationship Of Population Aging,Industrial Structure Optimization And Economic Development

According to the latest seventh census data,China’s population over the age of65 has reached 191 million,accounting for 13.5% of the total population.According to the international practice of judging an aging society where the population over the age of 65 accounts for more than 14% of the total population,China is only one step away from an aging society.In the past 40 years,the rich demographic dividend resources have played an important role in the rapid economic growth of China.However,how to achieve new economic development under the dual troubles of declining birth rate and aging population has become an important research topic.In this regard,the "Central Committee of the Communist Party of China’s Suggestions on Formulating the 14 th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-term Goals for 2035" proposed for the first time the implementation of a national strategy to actively respond to population aging,in order to still be able to achieve stable economic development after the arrival of an aging society.Based on the panel data at the provincial level in my country from 2003 to 2019,this paper studies the mechanism of population aging on economic development through industrial structure optimization,and analyzes the moderating effect of skill premium on this pathway.The research results show that population aging significantly promotes economic development through the mediation of industrial structure upgrading and industrial structure rationalization,and the optimization of industrial structure plays a partial mediating role.Moreover,the optimization of industrial structure has a threshold effect.After crossing the threshold,with the improvement of the optimization level of industrial structure,it is helpful to realize the economic development under the aging population.There are certain differences in the moderating effect of the skill premium.At the middle and low skill premium levels,the skill premium significantly enhances the positive effect of population aging on promoting economic development through the upgrading of industrial structure,indicating that the wage gap between medium-skilled and low-skilled,which helps to motivate workers to improve their labor skills,and matches with the upgrading process of industrial structure,so as to give full play to the dividends of industrial structure optimization;at the level of high-school skill premium,the skill premium significantly inhibits the aging of the population from promoting economic development through the rationalization of industrial structure.The positive effect shows that the wage gap between medium-skilled and high-skilled skills cannot effectively motivate workers to improve their skills,but is not conducive to the rationalization of industrial structure to play a positive role.