Research On The Impact Of Population Aging On Economic Development

Population is the main participants and promoters of economic development,demographic changes will inevitably lead to changes in the economy,to research a country’s economy is bound to considerate the demographic factors.A change in the total national’ population,including population size,labor,population age structure,regional distribution.etc.Many of those factors have a big impact on the economic and social development of the two country,and also because of the economic spillover effects,other neighboring countries’ talent supply and demand will also be impacted,industry will be affected.Therefore,it is necessary to take full account of demographic factors in the study of the economy.Meanwhile,the population aging problem has become one of the major issues of the21 st century in the current stage of development.Population aging would inevitably arise accompanied by the process of economic development or national population control policy.Whether developed or developing countries,population aging phenomenon will appear,just the performance is different in different regions and different stages of development.Overall,the development of aging population will significantly change the age structure of a country,and then change the labor supply,savings and other economic variables,these ongoing and far-reaching impact will affect a country’s economic structure step by step,if We can not correctly understand and handle the aging population,there will be a serious impact on economic growth of a country.As the Asian representative countries of prominent population aging--South Korea and China,their population policy and the aging process has some similarities,but overall,Korean entered the aging time much more early than China,the development impacts of aging on the economy may have emerged,the study of Korean population aging development stage and the economic impact can provide a favorable reference to China to solve the problem of aging.For China,the aging population is a major economic and social issue to face in China’s future sustainable development.To achieve China’s economy stable development,China must fully clarify the aging population developing characteristics,and the influence path of economic growth.On this basis,learn from South Korea to find a suitable way to solve the aging problem in Chinese economic situation,this is one of the main purpose of this research.This paper is divided into five parts.First,analysis the demographic transition theories,economic growth theories and the correlation between them to find the path may affect the economic growth of demographic change;Secondly,introduce the two nations’ population policy transition process to find the causes of demographic change;third,analysis the influencing path proposed in the paper,aging problem is mainly influence the economic growth indirectly through changing the economic structure,and mainly by influence the consumer demand and market factors supply: savings and investment,labor supply to adjust the industrial structure;fourth,using Douglas production function economic growth variables,fixed asset investment,R & D investment,human capital,demographic factors and economic growth,GDP itself in the two countries,by constructing VAR model to empirically analysis mutual relations of the five variables,and to predict future developments;and finally compare the two countries’ different social security policies and policies adopted by South Korea to solve aging problem,through comparative analysis,combined with China’s economic development,from the perspective of solving the problem of aging,draw inspiration for China’s future development.Through this study,this paper draw the following conclusions:There is a certain similarity in South Korea and China’s population aging development process.First,from the development pace,the aging population in the two countries are showing fast growth rate in recent years,which is different with developed countries where population aging arrival slowly with economic growth,the two countries’ aging problem is more rapidly and complex;Second,the reason of the aging,in addition to the traditional reason like living standard rise and increase in life expectancy,the population policy is also the main reason that caused the two countries’ aging problem.The population policies adopted in the two governments is mainly served for economic development,both the two countries think of that the rapid population growth would hinder economic grow at an early stage of economic development,therefore,the two countries have adopted suppressive population policy,and focus on improving the quality of the population,but the negative population policy’ implementation brought many problems,then both countries aware the appropriate population is also crucial to economic development and begin to implement proactive policies to increase birth rates.Besides,the problem causing by aging population also has similar characters,both the two countries have to pay attention to the birth rate and the raising burdens.On the impact of aging on the consumption structure of the two countries,the impact of aging on consumption is mainly reflected in the change in the consumption structure.With the growth of aging population,due to falling incomes and physical needs of the elderly,the unique needs of elderly will reflect in the market.In general,older people’s spending in medical care,health,housing,education will increased,and things like food will reduce.However,in measurement test,because the aging population accounts for a relatively limited proportion of whole,their spending trend was not obvious in the overall market,and thus on the measurement result,and the aging population’s effect is not well highlighted.The performance of aging’s affect on savings and investment is slightly different in the two countries,the increase in the aging population and decline in revenue terms,while the aging population’s savings decline,and the government’s support burden also need to declined government savings,overall decline in savings will cause a decline in investment.Observe the actual savings and investment of the two countries in recent years,Korean savings rate was volatile in recent years,investment declined,China’s savings and investment uptrend.And therefore reflected from the measurement result,the Korean population aging has no correlation between the savings rate,and negative correlation with investment;Chinese population aging have a positive correlation with savings and investments.Impact of aging on labor productivity in both countries is the same,labor reduction and the enhancement of labor quality makes labor productivity improve obviously in all industry.Adjustment of industrial structure is determined by many factors,aging is just one of them.All factors the two countries to change their industrial structures toward a higher efficiency direction,the proportion of agriculture,manufacturing has dropped,service industry rose.Using VAR model to analysis Douglas production function’s variables,there are similarities and differences between the two results.Both countries’ economic growth have relationships with the factors,but the correlation degree and performance show some differences.From the social security policy of the aging population,Korean implementation of pension policy and the effect is better than China for Korean had entered aging society much early,besides,the economic policies adopted by South Korea to face aging problem is worth learning of China.