A Study On The Impact Of Typical Events On The Stock Returns Of Listed Tourism Companies Under The Background Of COVID-19

The emergence and spread of the COVID-19 epidemic seriously threaten people’s lives and health,and also has a huge impact on the economy,with the tourism industry bearing the brunt.The stock market,as an important macroeconomic indicator,reflects the impact of the epidemic on a country’s economy to a certain extent.By sorting out the relevant literature on the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on tourism and other industries,and the impact of public emergencies on the stock returns of various industries,according to the existing research and theories,based on the effective data samples of Chinese tourism listed companies,this paper explores the impact mechanism of typical events on the volatility of stock returns in the context of COVID-19.Seven typical events related to the COVID-19 epidemic during the period from December 30,2019 to January 3,2021 were selected,and the volatility of stock returns of 28 listed tourism companies was analyzed by the event study method.First,quantify the independent impact and comprehensive impact of typical events on listed tourism companies through the average abnormal rate of return during the window period.Subsequently,we classify the events according to the main business and event attributes,examine the differentiated impact of typical events of different nature on tourism listed companies,and compare and analyze the impact caused by similar events on three main business types of tourism listed companies.The main findings of the empirical analysis are as follows:(1)The independent impact analysis of the seven typical events reveals that the macroeconomic situation,changes in supply and demand in the tourism market,and news information disclosure related to the epidemic together constitute the sources of stock investment information in the context of COVID-19.The typical events generate investment information based on the above three aspects,which affects investors’ sentiment and changes their investment judgments,thus causing abnormal fluctuations in the stock returns of listed tourism companies.(2)The comprehensive impact analysis found that events 1,2,5 and 7 brought negative impact to China’s listed tourism companies,events 3,4 and 6 brought positive impact,and 7 events showed very significant changes rapidly and maintained significance throughout the subsequent window.This indicates the effectiveness of the typical events selected to reflect the socio-economic changes affecting the tourism stock market during the epidemic.(3)The differential impact analysis found that all typical events caused abnormal fluctuations in stock returns of listed tourism companies in the short term,and the impact caused by each event on different types of companies was basically consistent with the overall tourism market.Among the negative impact events,event 1occurred at the early stage of the epidemic,and the change trend of the three types of listed companies was not smooth,while events 2,5 and 7 showed a relatively consistent downward trend;among the positive impact events,event 3 had a more complex impact on the three types of listed tourism companies,event 4 had a more stable positive impact trend,event 6 had a short-lived impact on the listed tourism general companies,and the positive of the listed restaurants and accommodation and scenic spots yield fluctuations are more persistent.The degree and duration of the impact of the virus infection information notification event,the epidemic prevention and control and favorable policy event,and the international financial market change event on the three types of listed tourism companies vary depending on the nature of the event and the type of main business.Finally,in the context of COVID-19 epidemic,the comprehensive influence mechanism of typical events on abnormal fluctuations of stock returns of listed tourism companies is summarized and proposed based on factors such as changes in macroeconomic situation,changes in tourism market supply and demand,and news information disclosure.And combine the impact mechanism to propose suggestions to cope with the impact of public health emergencies from the perspective of each subject of regulatory department,functional department,cultural and tourism department,stock market,and tourism enterprises respectively.