The Research On The Impact Of Hainan Free Trade Zone On Economic Growth In Hainan

In today’s world,the wind of trade protectionism led by the United States is gradually prevailing,and anti-globalization is gradually becoming a tide.From the reform and opening up to now,China has obtained huge economic dividends under the background,China began to select more regions to establish free trade zones,the implementation of China’s free trade economic strategy.As an important part of China’s overall opening-up plan,the Hainan Free Trade Zone has been endowed with important strategic positioning,including "open economic highland" and "ecological civilization pilot zone".Its main function is to serve as an open gateway to the Pacific and Indian Oceans.It has been two years since the establishment of Hainan Free Trade Zone,but there is no relevant literature on whether it has promoted the economic growth of Hainan province and produced the expected benefits.In view of this problem,this paper takes Hainan Free Trade Zone as the research object and uses the synthetic control method to evaluate how the regional economy will be affected under the effect of the pilot free trade zone.The corresponding econometric model is established based on the synthetic control method in the "counterfactual" framework.The synthetic control group can greatly reduce the probability of data endogeneity,and the pertinence of views can be guaranteed by quantifying the economic benefits of free trade zone.This paper uses provincial panel data to evaluate the economic effects of Hainan Free Trade Zone.A synthetic control group(virtual Hainan Province)was constructed to compare the difference between the counterfactual estimated value of the synthetic economic variables and the real value of hainan province after the establishment of Hainan Free Trade Zone,and to evaluate the impact of the establishment of Hainan Free Trade Zone on economic growth.And because by establishing a free trade area found after theoretical mechanism of the impact of economic growth,import and export trade,investment in fixed assets,financial opening and economic variables can also be through indirectly impact on the economic growth of hainan province,so in this paper,using the same synthetic control open to import and export trade,investment in fixed assets,financial and other economic variables also had an empirical analysis.The positive effects of trade,investment and finance on economic growth are proved by linear regression analysis.In this paper,monthly provincial panel data from 2010 to 2020 are used for research.The empirical results show that Hainan Free Trade Zone has an obvious promotion effect on GDP,import trade and export trade of Hainan Province,and its effect on fixed asset investment also appears slowly in the later period of the establishment of the free trade zone.However,the experiment did not produce significant results on the effect of financial openness.Finally,conclusions are summarized and corresponding policy suggestions are put forward.