Research On Safety Risk Assessment Of Rural Self-Built Houses Based On Accident Analysis

Most of the self-built houses in rural areas in China are independently designed and built by villagers according to their own economic ability and living needs,lack of professional design and construction,and the construction materials and processes are not scientific and reasonable,so that the quality of self-built houses is uneven,and there are certain safety risks.In recent years,there have been frequent safety accidents in rural selfbuilt houses,seriously affecting the safety of people’s lives and property and social and public safety.Therefore,it is necessary to explore the causative mechanism of safety accidents in rural self-built houses,and conduct scientific analysis and quantitative assessment of the safety risks of rural self-built houses,so as to provide reference and reference for the safety management of rural self-built houses in China.The main contents of the paper include the following aspects:(1)By combing the current situation of safety risk management of rural self-built houses in China,the logical interaction between continuous accumulation and explicit expression between safety risks and safety accidents in rural self-built houses is explored.Based on the analysis of rural self-built house accidents,it is clarified that the safety accidents of rural self-built houses have the characteristics of multiple uncertainties,safety accidents are affected by multiple factors such as natural conditions and human risks,and human factors show multiple disturbance characteristics compared with natural factors in the evolution process of self-built house accidents.(2)In order to clarify the causal mechanism of rural self-built house accidents,taking 17 self-built house collapse accidents that have received widespread public attention from 2014 to 2022 as samples,based on the 4M accident causal theory and qualitative comparative analysis method(QCA),the mechanism of the causative factors of rural self-built house safety accidents was fully explored,the conditional variables and their combination paths were explored,and five conditional configurations of rural selfbuilt house safety accidents were determined.Based on the analysis of the causal mechanism of the accident,23 relevant factors affecting the safety of rural self-built houses were determined from the two dimensions of self-built house reliability and resilience,and the internal logic and hierarchy of the influencing factors were analyzed by using the decision laboratory method(DEMATEL)and explanatory structure model(ISM).(3)In order to evaluate the safety risks faced by rural self-built houses,a safety risk assessment model of rural self-built houses was constructed based on the random forest algorithm,and the accuracy of the model was determined to be 0.875 and the AUC value was 0.97 by using the existing rural self-built house safety risk data as training samples,indicating that the model had high prediction accuracy.According to the five safety accident configuration paths of rural self-built houses summarized by cs QCA,the potential safety accident types of high-risk houses are analyzed,and corresponding risk control measures and treatment paths are proposed.