An Assistant Decision-Making Method And Application Research Oriented To Escort Mission

With the development of my country’s strategic decision on the "Maritime Silk Road" and the need to protect the country’s interests,it is urgent to develop a matching support capability for overseas military operations.In view of the frequent new situations and new tasks faced by overseas military operations in the Gulf of Aden,the Gulf of Guinea and other waters,the rapid changes in the combat situation,and the weak command and decision-making system,the traditional escort methods must effectively and quickly complete the escort tasks.There are serious challenges.Among them,the ability of the escort formation that needs to be improved most is how to quickly and effectively carry out the decision-making ability of protection and escort.Therefore,it is urgent to establish an auxiliary decision-making model for the task of protection and escort in this paper.Therefore,this paper focuses on the decision-making needs of overseas military forces to perform protection and escort missions in peacetime and wartime,focusing on the analysis of operational characteristics of overseas military operations,the analysis of plans based on decision trees,fine task allocation and resource scheduling decisions,and plan deduction evaluation.The main work completed is as follows:(1)Combining the characteristics of the protection and escort missions and related overseas military operation theories,establish a set of OODA combat loop theory(Observation,Orientation,Decision,Action),and the overall guidance of an auxiliary decision-making system composed of OODA inner and outer loops frame.(2)According to the characteristics of the protection and escort tasks,combined with the decision-making model theory in the military field,the predictability of the protection and escort tasks and the feasibility and advantages of the decision tree algorithm in the protection and escort tasks were analyzed;and the protection and escort tasks were analyzed.The elements of the action plan are extracted,and the key attributes of the auxiliary decision-making model are selected and discretized.(3)In view of the different decision-making requirements of normalized peacetime events and non-normalized wartime events in the protection and escort mission,based on the improved C4.5 algorithm,corresponding auxiliary decision-making models were established for peacetime decision-making and wartime decision-making respectively,and the two It extracts the heuristic rules of a decision-making model,further realizes visual analysis,and provides a more efficient auxiliary decision-making scheme for the overall action.(4)Aiming at the problems of threat estimation,path planning and force allocation in the mission of protection and escort,a real-time target threat assessment method based on AHP(Analytical Hierarchy Process)is established.The path planning method of the potential field method and the force allocation method based on the improved ant colony algorithm provide fine task allocation decision and resource scheduling guidance for the decision tree model to generate wartime decision-making plans.Finally,taking the decision-making action of our navy to perform escort missions in a certain sea area as the scenario to carry out simulation verification,the decision support method proposed in this paper is used for deduction simulation and evaluation.The results show that the decision support method proposed in this paper has good reference significance.