Research On Transmission Line Failure Based On Multi-risk Couplin

The safe operation of electric power is related to the country and people’s livelihood,among which the transmission line is an indispensable link,which is huge and complex and exposed on the surface,and the risks are numerous and complex.There is a certain connection between hidden dangers of power transmission in daily operation and maintenance.They influence each other and couple with each other.It is not known what this coupling relationship is and how strong the coupling is.Based on this kind of thinking,this paper analyzes the coupling of hidden risks of transmission lines,focuses on key risk connections,and uses this as a handshake to reduce transmission risks,reduce the accident rate of transmission lines,and improve the intrinsic safety of lines.Various risks are mined by summarizing the historical data of transmission line trips,and the fault tree method is used to study and analyze unplanned outages of transmission lines,and summarize the risk factors that lead to transmission line trips.This paper expounds the concept,classification and mechanism of risk coupling of hidden dangers in transmission line operation and maintenance,and draws on the positive causal chain method of system dynamics to qualitatively analyze the two types of risk coupling,supplemented by real cases.For the two types of risk coupling,the appropriate risk coupling calculation models for transmission line operation hidden dangers,NK model and coupling degree model,were selected and constructed according to the available data.The law that hidden danger factors increase and become larger;for the relatively incomplete homogeneous coupling of data,this article takes Tianjin State Grid-level key UHV transmission dense channels as an example,investigates the opinions of senior transmission line experts,and combines AHP and cloud theory to obtain Contribution of hidden dangers,the coupling interaction information of the most prominent risks and environmental hidden dangers is calculated through the coupling degree model,and pertinent risk control suggestions are put forward accordingly.Through this risk analysis,we have a clearer risk perception of the hidden dangers of transmission lines,and guide the direction of future operation and maintenance improvement.