Research On The Macroeconomic Effects Of Energy Price Fluctuations In The Context Of "Double Carbon"

At present,the global economic situation is increasingly complex and there is a trend of anti-globalization.There are different development bottlenecks in the economic development of various countries.As an important factor of production in the production process,the price change of energy will intensify the change of macroeconomic variables.In addition,with the worldwide spread of the epidemic and the outbreak of local wars,the world energy prices have risen sharply and fluctuated violently,and the global energy industry is facing unprecedented challenges.At present,China is in an important period of energy revolution.In 2020,China proposed a major decision to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060,which increased the uncertainty of energy price fluctuations.Therefore,this paper establishes a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the mechanism of the impact of energy price shocks on China’s macroeconomic effects,and provides a theoretical basis for the study of macroeconomic policies.In the DSGE model of this paper,the price stickiness rule is introduced into the pricing of intermediate goods.The intermediate product market is characterized by imperfect competition,and more exogenous shocks are added.The parameters of this model are verified and selected by calibration and Bayesian estimation.First,estimate the prior distribution interval.After obtaining the posterior estimation of the parameters,use the posterior mean value to simulate the impulse response of the model,study the impulse response of the endogenous variable to the exogenous structure impact,and decompose the period and trend,and finally obtain the impulse response diagram.This paper analyzes and demonstrates the results of variance decomposition and impulse response diagram.By analyzing the results of impulse response and variance decomposition,the empirical results of this paper show that:(1)energy price shocks and technological progress shocks are important sources of China’s economic fluctuations,while environmental policy shocks,subsidy shocks and monetary policy shocks are secondary sources.(2)In recent years,the impact of energy prices is the main factor of the cyclical change of the total output level,while the impact of technological progress,environmental policy and subsidies are the main factors of the cyclical change of consumption level and energy consumption.(3)Positive energy price shocks have a positive impact on capital,and a negative impact on total output level,private consumption,environmental quality,energy consumption of cleaner manufacturers and polluters,and return to a steady state in almost 20 years.(4)Although various exogenous shocks have affected macroeconomic fluctuations through monetary policy,the main impact path is still non-monetary.The innovation points of this paper are as follows:(1)Research perspective innovation.This paper adopts the new Keynesian DSGE model,which not only has the micro-basis,but also introduces the price stickiness rule to explore the law of energy price fluctuation in a more perfect economic framework.(2)Function setting innovation.The production function established in this paper includes labor,capital and energy consumption.(3)Innovation in research issues.This paper not only considers the impact of energy price on major macroeconomic variables,but also analyzes the impact of energy price impact on clean manufacturers and polluters.And the impact of environmental policy is introduced,and the impact mechanism of environmental regulation on economic variables is considered.