Study On Governance Path Of Transport Carbon Emissions Based On DSGE

The world has pay significant attention on the global warming and environment degradation problems. And the carbon dioxide as the most important greenhouse gas is the focus during the Energy Conservation & Emission Reduction strategy. Transport CO2 emission is the fastest growing part during all the industries, which accounting for 22% to 24% of global greenhouse gas emissions and it will be far more than other industries in the foreseeable future. To seek more reasonable way to achieve low-carbon transport and sustainable city development, many cities around the world has construct the low-carbon transport system and regard it as the its most important development strategy, while the low-carbon transport problem has not been solved.The current researches on this problem are mostly focused on the related factors and their contribution to transport CO2 emission, while little is studied about the internal drive mechanism of transportation CO2 emission, it is difficult to understand the transportation CO2 emissions problem. So it’s important to seek the governance path of the transportation CO2 emission and propose reasonable policies based on the internal drive mechanism analysis. Meanwhile, the DSGE model which is good at analyzing the different subjects’ behavior is not popular in the current transport CO2 emission researches.Given the current situation, based on the general equilibrium theory, refer to the Real Business Cycle(RBC) theory, taking into account the characteristics of transportation products, this paper built the DSGE model to systematically analyze the internal drive mechanism of transportation CO2 emission, which consider the production function of transportation company, the utility function of the transportation consumer and Chinese carbon tax environmental policy.Taking Xi’an as the study area, this paper construct four scenarios: the baseline scenario, the carbon tax scenario, the vehicle restriction scenario, and the combination policy scenario. Then, the detailed comparative analysis of the four scenarios are conducted through DSGE model by MATLAB software. It turns out that the combination scenario, which control the private car CO2 emission and the public transport CO2 emission, shows the most significant effect. This paper provide a quantitative theoretical base for the governance path of the transportation CO2 emission.